For horse racing fans, the onset of autumn coincides with the staging of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster with the final classic of the season deemed as a race for three year olds considered to best suited by a test of stamina.
This year’s renewal features a typical encounter between those already experienced in classics and the less exposed horses.
Ladbrokes have installed the David Wachman trained Galileo Rock as 4-1 favourite and this will only be his fourth race of the season after being placed in both the English and Irish Derbies when having every chance in each race. His ability is not in question but whether he possesses the class to win such an event is open to debate.
Disputing favouritism with Galileo Rock is Excess Knowledge, a progressive colt who did not make his seasonal debut until July. He has been placed in both Group 3 and Listed company but he is being asked a serious question for his first effort in a Group 1 race. Having not won in four attempts since claiming victory in his racecourse debut in August 2012, he is still being offered at just 4/1 by Paddy Power.
No English classic would be complete without a runner saddled by Aidan O’Brien and he has entered two live contenders for this race. Foundry has raced only once this season when chasing home Telescope in the Great Voltigeur at York and gave the impression that he would be suited by the extra two furlongs at Doncaster. William Hill quote him at 6/1, yet his stable companion Leading Light also has a viable chance.
Off the course since winning the 2m Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, Leading Light is unbeaten in three starts this season and has proven stamina allied to the required speed to win a couple of useful Irish 10 furlong races in different types of going. He is generously priced at 6/1 by Coral.
Behind him in the betting is Derby second-placed Libertarian who is now trained by Charlie Appleby. Unraced as a two year old, Libertarian appeared a typical Leger type when finishing strongly at Epsom only to flop badly when eighth of nine in the Irish equivalent. SkyBet quote him at 8/1 and those odds may be good value should his early season form be reproduced.
Like Libertarian, Oaks winner Talent also has much to prove after finishing last in the Irish Oaks after a smooth success in the Epsom version. Trainer Ralph Beckett is optimistic that the filly is back to her best but the 16/1 quoted by Bet Victor suggests that she faces an uphill task racing against the colts for the first time.
Of the outsiders, Feel Like Dancing cannot be dismissed from the reckoning. The John Gosden trained colt chased home Leading Light at Ascot and his rating had increased by a further 10 when he won the Bahrain Trophy over 1m 5f at Newmarket. He represents decent each way value at 16/1 with Coral.
In what appears to be a very open contest this year, the St Leger is also supported by a competitive four day card during which the advent of autumn can often produce a serious change in form.
Compare the latest betting odds on the St Leger here
Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) 1m 6f
Excess Knowledge 4/1 Galileo Rock 5/1 Leading Light 5/1 Foundry 5/1 Libertarian 9/1 Feel Like Dancing 12/1 Eye Of The Storm 14/1 Talent 16/1 Secret Number 16/1 Cap O’Rushes 20/1 Great Hall 20/1 Dabadiyan 25/1 Havana Beat 33/1 Willie The Whipper 40/1 Dashing Star Renew 50/1 London Bridge 66/1 Plinth 50/1 Ralston Road
* Recent winners had the following career starts
* 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 8 7 9 6 6 6 3 9 7 6 7 7 5 5 5 3 4
* Recent winners had the following number of runs that year
* 3 4 5 5 4 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 7 4 6 3 5 4 2 3 4
* FOUNDRY only has 2 career runs
* Thats less than all winners since Snurge in 1990
* FOUNDRY only has 1 run this season as well
* Thats not acceptable with no winners having that
* FOUNDRY also doesn’t have the ideal 12f -12f preps
* EYE OF THE STORM only has 1 run this year as well
* He probably won’t run
* The following horses fail several angles
* None look good enough or worth elaborating on
* RALSTON ROAD – LONDON BRIDGE
* DASHING STAR – WILLIE THE WHIPPER
* HAVANA BEAT – RENEW – PLINTH
* FEEL LIKE DANCING doesn’t offer enough
* He has no form in Group 1-2 races
* Only 1 of the last 23 winners could say the same
* He has form over 2m which isn’t what you want
* His Racing Post Ratings are lower than all past winners
* GREAT HALL looks the wrong type to me
* Not keen he ran over 14f last time out
* No Group form and coming from a handicap as well
* This is all exposed by his Racing Post Ratings
* DABADIYAN has just won his last 3 races
* His big problem is a lack of the required backclass
* He is unlikely to be good enough
* LEADING LIGHT is not like any winners
* He comes from a 2m race which is wrong
* None of the last 25 winners did that
* LEADING LIGHT only has Group 3 form
* We know the vast majority of past winners had more
* He has the 2nd longest absence of 85 days
* His last Racing Post Rating was not impressive
* It was much lower than the last 25 winners had
* EXCESS KNOWLEDGE comes from a significant stable
* Main problem with him is just 2 runs this season
* The last to do that was Snurge back in 1990
* Snurge’s numbers were significantly better
* The last 25 winners all had higher Racing Post Ratings
* His last two runs were over 10f and 12f
* You really want a 12f and 12f preparation
* SECRET NUMBER has plenty of positives
* The right number of overall runs including this year
* He is well conditioned with a 12f 12f preparation
* There are 2 factors against him
* His Racing Post Ratings are a bit on the low side
* His biggest problem could be stamina
* His Sire’s stamina index is lower than ideal
* His Sire (Raven’s Pass) hasn’t bred a winner past 12f yet
* Purely on Stamina he is one of the least likely to stay
* Very strong profile otherwise but huge stamina doubts
* CAP O’ RUSHES would be quite an exposed winner
* He was a 66/1 Pacemaker in his one run in a Group 1
* Raises doubts about whether he can win a Grade 1
* His sire is also unproven with all his 14f runners
* His last run was below the level required
* I’d be worried he will be sacrificed again
* He could be a pacemaker again for Libetarian
* I could make a very small case for him
* It would take some imagination though
* I don’t think he will be good enough
* TALENT is a filly and not many did well recently
* Doesn’t worry me as they are fine in this race
* Especially the Group 1 winners like her
* I appreciate she was 2nd string when she won the Oaks
* She is still a Group 1 winner though
* She has to prove she stays 14f
* Her Sire has 3 horses in this race trying the same
* Stamina and a poor last run and her problems
Shortlist
* LIBERTARIAN was unraced as a 2yo
* Many recent winners had the same profile
* He is absent 77 days longer than all recent winners
* I can overlook that as it’s only a little longer
* As far as I can see he has two problems
* First is a poor last run when well beaten
* It’s very rare to win this race after a bad run
* The last 12 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
* There is also stamina by New Approach
* The sire hasn’t yet had a winner beyond 12f
* I suppose there is stamina on the dam’s side
* He has also upgraded stables as well
* The distance and his last run do ask questions of him
* GALILEO ROCK has a very solid profile
* Sails through all the strongest angles
* His 77 day absence would be the longest in a long time
* Only by a week though and I can overlook that
* You can argue he hasn’t won a Group race yet
* Placed in the English and Irish Derby trumps that
* His overall profile is very competent
* GALILEO ROCK is the best profile
* He is the most likely winner