Hi MyTipsters, Well, that was a dramatic ending to the Classic flat season in the St Leger last week – but I guess the bookies weren’t complaining. Yes, the hot favourite, Idaho, took a stumble in the home straight and unshipped his jockey, Seamie Heffernan, when still going well. Okay, it might have been too far out to know if he’d have won the race, but with the first three home only separated by a length then you suspect there would have been a good chance the Aidan O’Brien hot-pot would have won – we’ll never know!
That said, we are taking nothing away from the Laura Mongan team, who saddled the winner – Harbour Law at 22/1. The Epsom-based yard not only grabbed the huge £396k pot but Laura also entered the history books as becoming the first female trainer to win the St Leger – top stuff.
Anyway, onto this week and despite a fairly quiet midweek the action ramps up a notch this Saturday with 8 LIVE races, again on C4’s sister channel – More4. It’s AYR Gold Cup Day north of the border and as we’ll have the ultra-competitive sprint covered with all the key trends, plus our verdict on the race – did you know ALL of the last 14 Ayr Gold Cup winners raced in the last 6 weeks?
The More4 cameras are also at Newbury to cover four LIVE races on their Dubai Duty Free Day, including the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes, plus the Dubai Duty Free Handicap. All-in-all we are set for another cracking day’s action, plus don’t forget the Trainers-Quotes.com yards continue to reward members with top-notch info.
Who’ll Land Gold at Ayr?
3.45 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f More4
14/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
11/14 – Failed to win their last race
11/14 – Had won over 6f before
10/14 – Had 7 or runs that season
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Rated 90-100
9/14 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Carried 9-1 or more
8/14 – Had raced at Ayr before
8/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/14 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (2) last time out
7/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
4/14 – Trained by David Nicholls (won the race 6 times in all)
3/14 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/14– Winning favourites (2 winning favs since 1980)
0/14 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 16/1
VERDICT: The Ayr Gold Cup is the feature event at the Scottish track this Saturday and, just like every year, it’s a very hard race to find the winner in. 25 runners line-up this time, but being a handicap there are plenty of key trends to apply to the race that should hopefully help find the best profile of horse. With ALL of the last 14 winners having run in the last 6 weeks then this is a perfect place to start. With that in mind Absolutely So, Ascription, Aeolus, Johnny Barnes, Jack Dexter, Teruntum Star & Flaming Spear all have this as a negative. If we want to take this stat a bit further then 13 of the last 14 winners had run within the last 4 weeks – this rules out Hoof It, Growl, Kimberella, Hillbilly Boy, Orion’s Bow and Perfect Pasture.
Looking at the best age we’ve only seen 5 winners aged 6 or older since 1980, so really we want to concentrate on the 4 and 5 year-olds in the race. The yards with the best recent records are Kevin Ryan and David Nicholls – Ryan runs Brando, Teruntum Star & Flaming Spear, while Nicholls has Kimberella & Orion’s Bow. Don’t be too concerned if your fancy DIDN’T win last time out as 11 of the last 14 headed here off the back of a defeat – the recent winners in the field are Magnus Maximus, Hoof It, Nameitwhatyoulike and Hillbilly Boy.
With all the key trends taken into account the Kevin Ryan-trained BRANDO (e/w) certainly makes plenty of appeal. Okay, draw 8 is not be 100% ideal, but it does give jockey Tom Eaves several options. 9-10 is a lot of weight too, but that’s because this 4 year-old has been running in lot better races than this. We last saw him competing in the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes, while back in July he landed a Group Three at Sandown.
We’ve already touched on the good record the stable has in the race, while the softer conditions won’t be a problem – he’s won on surfaces ranging from good through to soft. Of the others, G Force, could be interesting if recapturing his 2 and 3 year-old form and is now with the shrewd Adrian Paul Keatley yard. The Richard Fahey-trained Growl has been popular in the betting all week, but is no value now and does fall down on some big stats like draw and length of recent run.
Yes, he looks sure to be in the shake-up – he’s been placed in the top 4 in his last 7 races – but despite looking to have a big chance based on current form is overlooked at the poor value.
Ayr – Best Of The Rest
2.00 – BLETCHLEY
2.35 – STAMP HILL (e/w)
3.10 – EDGAR BALTHAZAR (e/w)
It’s Dubai Duty Free Day at Newbury…………………
2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y CH4
11/14 – Won from draw 5 or lower
11/14 – Raced 3 or more times
11/14 – Won over 6f previously
11/14 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
10/14 – Foaled in March or later
10/14 – Favourites placed
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/14 – Won exactly two races before
7/14 – Favourites (or joint) to win
6/14 – Won by an April foal
5/14 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/14 – Won their previous race
4/14 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/14 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/14 – Filly winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
VERDICT: 10 runners entered here, but again some decent trends to take into the race. 11 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 5 or lower so right away that sees the runners cut in half with Harry Angel (1), Mokarris (2), Medici Banchiere (3), Global Applause (4) and Grey Britain (5) those in question.
The same amount of recent winners (11/14) had run at least three times previously, so the once-raced, Harry Angel, is knocked out on that front, while being a 2 year-old race the month these runners were foaled back in 2014 is certainly another thing to look for. 10 of the last 14 winners were born in March or later so that’s great news for Grey Britain (Mar), Medici Banchiere (Apr) and MOKARRIS (Mar). The last-named was a 2 length second in the Gimcrack Stakes at York last time out and on that run looks a huge player.
Top jockey, Paul Hanagan, rides this Simon Crisford-trained juvenile and he’s also a past course and distance winner so no track issues, after winning a Listed event here back in July by an impressive 2 ¾ lengths. Of the others, the Richard Hannon pair of Legendary Lunch and Repton are respected but don’t tick as many of the few trends as Mokarris.
2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 1m2f6y CH4
12/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/14 – Won from stall 7 or higher
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/14 – Won at least twice previously
9/14 – Won over 1m2f previously
9/14 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/14 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/14 – Won by a 4 year-old
8/14 – Won from a double-figure draw
8/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
6/14 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
What About Carlo won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
VERDICT: What About Carlo won this race last year and off a pound lower rating looks to have every chance of going well again, and the soft ground he generally needs seems to have come at the right time. 20 runners head to post so an super-tough contest to unpick, but with 12 of the last 14 winners aged either 3 or 4 years-old then we can rule 6 out – Stars Over The Sea, Watersmeet, What About Carlo, Passover, Goodwood Mirage, and Sennockian Star.
10 of the last 14 winners carried 9-1 or less in weight so of those that also fit the age trend Muzdawaj, Autocratic, Shell Bay, Baadi, Montsarrat, Sir Roderic, Imperial Avaitor, Lord Ben Stack, Baydar, Scarlet Dragon and Bermondsey are the ones that catch the eye. Of those mentioned AUTOCRATIC and BERMONDSEY make the most appeal. Autocratic is from the Sir Michael Stoute stable and is bound to be popular with top jockey Ryan Moore riding. This 3 year-old has only had five career outings and has been solid in his last three runs when second twice and winning two starts ago at Sandown. Bermondsey comes from the Luca Cumani camp, who have a cracking record in this race – winning it four times in the last 14 runnings.
Okay, this horse has a bit to prove based on its last run when well down the field at Doncaster, but the time before was only 1 ¼ lengths behind another leading chance in this race – Baydar – and is now 8lbs better off with that Hugo Palmer-trained 3 year-old so there is a good claim to think we can get a lot closer and hopefully reverse the form this time.
Newbury – Best Of The Rest
1.45 – THE GREY GATSBY
3.25 – MUTHMIR (e/w)