Aug 27 2016 @ 10:40
Hello MyTipsters members,
Yes, after York, it’s been a lot quieter this week, but as we head into another weekend there is plenty going on with the C4 cameras showing eight races spread across three fixtures. We’ve four LIVE races from Goodwood, including the Group Two Celebration Mile, a race trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won 8 times. We’ve also three LIVE races at Newmarket, plus they are heading to Beverley to take in their Bullet Sprint – blink and you’ll miss it!! As always, we’ve got it all covered with the key trends for the main races plus our verdicts….Have a good weekend!
Who’ll Be Celebrating at Goodwood?…….
4.30 – Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group 2) Cl1 1m CH4
12/13 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
11/13 – Aged 5 or younger
11/13 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or shorter
11/13 – Had won over a mile before
10/13 – Priced 7/1 or less
9/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/13 – Had 3 or more runs that season
8/13 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/13 – Had run at Goodwood before (3 CD winners)
8/13 – Previous Group winners
7/13 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newbury (3) last time out
4/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/13 – Won by a mare
2/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/13 – Won last time out
ALL of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1,2 or 6
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
VERDICT: The feature race of the weekend here. Yes, a shame the race has only attracted five runners but we should still be in for a fascinating, tactical contest. The David Simcock-trained Lightning Spear is the highest-rated in the race (117), but does also have to give 8lbs to the exciting 3 year-olds Thikriyaat and Zonderland, who both come here buzzing after wins last time out.
THIKRIYAAT also comes from the Sir Michael Stoute team, who have an eye-catching record in this race – winning it eight times in the past. Their improving 3 year-old has been the talk of the race in the build-up to the contest and caught the eye last time when winning a fair Group Three at the Glorious meeting. He’s the only course and distance winner in the field, so that’s a big plus with 8 of the last 13 winners having won at the track before – he looks the one to beat. Zonderland will provide some worthy opposition though based his recent Salisbury Group Three victory, plus also being a 3 year-old the horse gets a handy 8lbs from the older runners. Toormore is the proven class horse in the race being a past Group One & Two winner.
He’s also a past course winner and comes into the race after a decent fourth in the Group One Sussex Stakes last month. That said, being a past Group One winner it will he hard giving 11lbs to the likes of Thikriyaat and Zonderland. Arod is the final entry and is certainly not one to dismiss. This 5 year-old has decent course form but does have a bit to prove as he’s not won for over a year – has a bit to prove. On a plus he’s a horse that likes to race up with the pace so for all you traders there should be a good opportunity to lock in a profit by backing before the off and then laying in-running.
Blink And You’ll Miss It – Beverley’s Silver Bullet……….
3.10 – totescoop6 Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f CH4
11/12 – Unplaced last time out
11/12 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/12 – Had 3 or more runs that season
10/12 – Had won over 5f before
10/12 – Won 3 or more times before
9/12 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
8/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Run at Beverley before (4 won)
4/12 – Aged 3 years-old
3/12 – Ridden by Tom Eaves
2/12 – Trained by Ian Semple
2/12 – Trained by Bryan Smart
1/12 – Winning favourites
No winner from a double-figure draw in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
5 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 1 or 2
The horse from stall 9 has been placed in 6 of the last 10 runnings
Maarek won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 7/1
VERDICT: Maarek took this race 12 months ago and bids to follow-up. However, since winning this race this 9 year-old sprinter hasn’t won (10 races), so has a bit to do if he wants to retain his title – Chookie Heiton in 2004 and 2005 was the last horse to land back-to-back Bullets! However, in last year’s winners defence, he’s been contesting in higher graded races and with stall one a huge plus then (7 of the last 10 winners came from stall 1-4) you certainly wouldn’t discount him going in again – he won from stall 4 last year.
If the official ratings are to be trusted the classy Muthmir (112) and Mr Lupton (111) will be battling this out, while with Mr Lupton getting 2lbs off Muthmir then this certainly adds to his chance. Both horses don’t have the best draws though (Muthmir, 7 and Mr Lupton 8), but the first-named ran a blinder to only be beaten 2 ½ lengths in the Group Two King George Stakes last time out so if able to overcome the draw looks the one to beat. In terms of trainers to look for then Bryan Smart is your man. He won the prize in 2007 and 2011 so his ALPHA DELPHINI (e/w) certainly catches the eye. Drawn in stall 4 so he ticks the stall stat, plus he’s a past course and distance winner. Add in that he’s arguably the form horse after wins at York and Ascot, albeit in handicap company, then he could be the each-way value in the race.
Other TV Races
3.00 – SHAWAAHID
3.35 – GREAT GLEN
4.10 – EASTERN IMPACT (e/w)
2.45 – ON HER TOES
3.20 – BIG TIME (e/w)
3.55 – GLARING (e/w)