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Aug 20 2016 @ 10:27
Richard Dunwoody MBE posted an update in the group Horse Racing 7 years, 7 months ago
It’s been a cracking week at York with plenty of clues ahead towards the later stages of the turf flat season. Aidan O’Brien’s Idaho was one of the highlights when taking the Great Voltigeur on Wednesday and could now be heading for the St Leger as his famous trainer eyes his fifth win in the final English Classic of the 2016 season. But it’s not over yet as we head into the final day of the 4-day Ebor Festival and we end the fixture with four more LIVE C4 races from the Knavesmire, including, of course, the Ebor Handicap – Europe’s richest flat handicap.
As always we’ll be on hand to give you the top trends and our best bets for the FOUR LIVE York races, plus our quick-fire tips from the day’s other TV meeting at Sandown which features the Group Three Solario Stakes.
It’s Ebor Day at York………….
YORK Horse Racing Trends (Live C4/RUK)
2.15 – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y CH4
13/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/13 – Had won at least twice in the their career
12/13 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Had won over a mile before
9/13 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
9/13 – Favourites to finish in the top three
8/13 – Placed horses from stall 2
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – Previous Group race winners
6/13 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
6/13 – Won by Godolphin
5/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/13 – Had won at York before
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2
Custom Cut won the race in 2014
Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heatVERDICT: The Frankie Dettori-ridden Countermeasure will be popular with the pocket Italian riding but with ALL of the last 13 winners of this race having won before over at least a mile this Roger Charlton-trained horse falls down on that trend. 4 and 5 year-olds hold the best record – winning 10 of the last 13 renewals, while it’s been a cracking race for the Godolphin operation – winning it 6 times in the last 13 runnings. With that in mind then their 4 year-old, SCOTTISH, is the call here. This 113-rated gelding was a beaten favourite last time out, but seemed to get tired in the closing stages that day and so the drop back in trip is a big plus. Of the rest, horses from stall 2 have placed 8 times in the last 13 runnings so the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Celestial Path will be looking to uphold that trend. Finally, Custom Cut, despite now being a 7 year-old, took this race in 2014 and with the yard being amongst the winners already this week at the meeting then he warrants respect too.
2.50 – Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4
11/13 – Not raced at York before
11/13 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/13 – Won carrying 9-0 or less
11/13 – Had won over 1m4f or further
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
10/13 – Had a top 5 finish last time out
8/13 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
7/13 – Winning distance 1 length or less
5/13 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 8/1VERDICT: With 11 of the last 13 winners having raced 4 or more times already this season then this trend certainly knocks a fair few out, including the Aidan O’Brien pair Kellstorm and Unicorn. Being a handicap then weight carried is also an important stat to note and with 11 of the last 13 winners carrying 9-0 or less then this means the bottom six on the card are the only ones that fall into that category. Horses that finished in the top 5 last time out have also done well in recent years with 10 of the last 13 winning – most fit the bill on that trend – with just Master Blueyes, Unicorn and Wall Of Fire falling short. A low draw has been favoured too with 8 of the last 13 coming from stalls 8 or lower, so taking all those key stats into account recent winners, INJAM and THEOS LOLLY, look the most interesting.
3.25 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f CH4
13/13 – Won just 1-2 times before
13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Won just once before
8/13 – Foaled in March or later
8/13 – Had won over 6f before
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – Won by a March foal
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas
2/13 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
1/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2VERDICT: A decent-looking renewal of the Gimcrack as we get a chance to see some of the best 2 year-olds in action. It’s been a kind race for the William Haggas team, having won the spoils in 2010 and 12 months ago and they look to hold another massive chance this year with MUBTASIM. This juvenile has really caught the eye in winning both his career starts in effortless fashion and the last of those he had some fair sorts in behind. He’s got more fancy entries after this and it’s no secret that connections think he could be a classy sort. Looking at the trends ALL of the last 13 winners had raced in the last 6 weeks, while 10 of the last 13 finished in the top three last time out. Look for horses foaled in March or later – Mubtasim was born in April 2014. Of the rest, the Kevin Ryan camp are another yard that have done well in the race – winning it in 2012 and 2013 – so their Dream Of Dreams will be trying to improve that record, and looks to have a decent chance after running a close second in a Group Two over in Ireland last time out. Godolphin’s Blue Point, the consistent The Last Lion, Global Applause and Mokarris are others to note, but the Haggas-trained Mubtasim could turn out to be a bit special.
4.00 – Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4
14/14 – Carried 9-4 or less
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Won from a double-figure stall
11/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/14 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/14 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Had run at York before
5/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/14 – Winning favourites
Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 23/1VERDICT: It’s the most valuable flat handicap in Europe so it’s no surprise that we’ve another well-contested field heading to post – 22 in fact. But there are plenty of big trends to take into the race, including that ALL of the last 14 winners carried 9-4 or less. If this stat is to be repeated, then all of a sudden the 22 runners become just six – She Is No Lady, Shrewd, Top Tug, Sir Chauvelin, Havana Beat and First Mohican. They are all respected with such low weights to carry and in a race like this there is no harm having a few running for you. However, if you want to narrow down the field a bit more then horses aged 4 and 5 have by far the best record, while 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or younger – this is a negative for First Mohican, who is 8. The draw has also been a key trend with 11 of the last 14 coming from a double-figure stall. Of the six at the bottom of the weights horses Sir Chauvelin (12), Havana Beat (14) and Shrewd (10) get positives on that front. Shrewd is also one of just two past course and distance winners in the field so that gives him an edge and should find this a tad easier than the recent Listed race he contested. Finally, despite being drawn in stall 5 the Frankie Dettori-ridden SHE IS NO LADY (e/w) also looks a big player after her close second in a Listed race at Sandown last time out.
Other TV Races – Sandown
2.30 – PERSUASIVE
3.05 – MARORIS
3.40 – REVOLUIONIST (e/w)