Jul 02 2016 @ 10:59
Hi, so the Epsom Derby winner, Harzand, had enough in the locker to get home in last Saturday’s Irish Derby to add that famous Curragh race to his already impressive CV. Next stop for Dermot Weld’s rapidly improving 3 year-old could be the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot later this month – where he’ll take on his elders for the first time, while he’s also entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown later in the season.
However, before all that we’ve another cracking Saturday ahead as it’s Coral-Eclipse day at Sandown. We’ve four LIVE C4 races from the Esher track to take in, while the cameras are also at Haydock for three races that include the Old Newton Cup and the Lancashire Oaks.
So, plenty to look forward to and we’ve the main races – The Coral Eclipse, Old Newton Cup and the Lancashire Oaks all covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our TQ verdict. Enjoy
Can Anything Stop The Gurkha Eclipsing His Rivals?…………………….
3.45 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y CH4
Coral Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends
14/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Won by a previous Group One winner
11/14 – Placed favourites
12/14 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
11/14 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
9/14 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
9/14 – Placed in their last race
7/14 – Winning Favourites
5/14 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
4/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/14 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season (2 winners)
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 9/2
Other Coral Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994 & 1993
Godolphin-owned horses won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996 & 1995
John Gosden has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
VERDICT: We’ve another fascinating renewal of this famous Group One – a race that’s simply been dominated by the powerful Gosden, Stoute, Godolphin and Aidan O’Brien yards in recent times. Clive Cox will be trying to change that this year as his Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner, My Dream Boat, looks a big player on that form. He had the classy Found beaten in second that day, plus another of the runner here – Western Hymn – back in third. Add in that he’s a past course and distance winner after landing the Gordon Richards Stakes here back in April then everything points to a huge run – any more rain would be a big help though.
We’ve already mentioned Western Hymn as he’ll be looking to give the Gosden team their third winner from the last five runnings of the race. However, he’s a bit to find with some of these and after six top-three finishes has started to become expensive to follow. Time Test took the Brigadier Gerard here last month – with Western Hymn in second – so if lining-up is certainly one that will be popular. His form at the track reads an impressive 1-2-1 so we know he loves it here, while the Roger Charlton team know what’s required having landed the pot in 2013.
However, all of the above mentioned will have to give a ‘big-looking’ 11lbs to give to Aidan O’Brien’s main runner – THE GURKHA – and that might be a big task. This Galileo 3 year-old colt will get weight from all the older horses and being rated 120 anyway then this gives him a huge advantage. Add in that he’s likely to improve bundles for this step up to 1m2f (from 1m) then there should be more to come too. We last saw him getting going too late in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot so that is further evidence that this longer trip will suit. His participation has scared some of the others away, but it’s hard to get away from his chance at the weights and looks likely to give the Aidan O’Brien yard their sixth Coral-Eclipse success.
Sandown TV Races Best Bets
2.00 – BRANDO
2.35 – MUTAMAKKIN (e/w)
3.10 – MAKE FAST (e/w)
A Cracking Card At Haydock Too………………………….
2.50 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y CH4
Recent Old Newton Cup Winners
2015 – Notarised (12/1)
2014 – De Rigueur (9/1)
2013 – Star Lahib (8/1)
2012 – Number Theory (8/1)
2011 – Halicarnassus (14/1)
2010 – Dangerous Midge (17/2)
2009 – Red Merlin (15/2 jfav)
2008 – Mad Rush (5/2 fav)
2007 – Dansili Dancer (15/2)
2006 – Consular (16/1)
2005 – Zeitgeist (9/1)
2004 – Alkaased (7/1)
2003 – Collier Hill (8/1)
2002 – Sun Bird (40/1)
Key Old Newton Cup Betting Trends
13/14 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Won no more than 5 times before
11/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/14 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/14 – Raced within the last 7 days
8/14 – Carried 8-10 or less
8/14 – Irish or USA bred
8/14 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/14 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/14 – Had won a race at Haydock before
4/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of the last 3)
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6 of the last 10 winners raced at Ascot (4) or Goodwood (2) last time out
5 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 11/1
VERDICT: With two wins in the last three renewals of this ultra-competitive handicap then trainer Mark Johnston must be feared. He runs an army again so the betting should provide a good guide to the chances of his runners. However, being a tough handicap these sort of races can often be good contests for the trends lovers out there – after all, if a certain profile of horse has done well in the past then there is a very good chance of that repeating itself again.
You can see above there are several key stats – like age, weight, draw and number of past wins – so after applying the main trends to the final runners we’ve come up with four standouts – DESERT ENCOUNTER (e/w), DURETTO (e/w) and SNOANO (e/w). Once the draw comes out then that’s a further trend to take into account as 9 of the last 14 came from stalls 13 or lower. Desert Encounter, who is drawn 3, heads here on a five-timer after and is up a further 5lbs from his last win at Windsor. He’s won on a variety of different ground so no issues there and could still be ahead of the handicapper as he’s a hard horse to assess having only just got up the last twice – looks a big player and now also ticks the key draw trend.
Duretto, who is drawn 12, was beaten favourite last time out at Epsom, but still ran a solid race to be fifth of 17. This Andrew Balding-trained 4 year-old gets in here off the same mark and looks to have a big chance – another that has a decent draw and plenty of the main trends in his favour. Snoano will be helped by the fact jockey Rachel Richardson claims a further 5lbs and also heads here off the back of nice win at York. Yes, that was in a ladies’ amateur contest so the form is hard to assess, but this 4 year-old ticks a lot of the key trends and looks worth a small each-way interest, but does fall down on the draw trend coming out of 19.
Finally, the Roger Varian-trained King Bolete is another that is sure to be popular after wins at Ascot and here over CD, but with 9-3 to carry then he does fall down on the key weight trend that sees 11 of the last 14 winners carrying 9-1 or less to victory.
Haydock TV Races Best Bets
1.45 – WILD HACKED
2.15 – LADY CAMELOT EW & MISS MAJURIE EW