Jun 25 2016 @ 11:32
Hi Friend, well it’s been a crazy week with all the EU Referendum stuff doing on – we even had a horse running at Newbury on Thursday called ‘Brexit’ – it didn’t win the race, but the Brexit boys did win the voting battle.
No matter what side you are on, or even if you didn’t vote, it’s time to move on now and hopefully a decent day’s racing this Saturday – that includes the Northumberland Plate, run for the first time on their new AW track, plus the Irish Derby over at the Curragh are the feature contests.
We also ended Royal Ascot last week with three nice winners for you in the shape of Churchill (8/11), Dartmouth (10/1) and Twilight Son (7/2) – we hope you were on! We’ll be looking to continue that good form into this Saturday as we’ve LIVE C4 racing from Newmarket and Newcastle, plus it’s Derby Day over in Ireland and the Curragh. Plenty to look forward to and we’ve the main race from each of those fixtures covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our verdicts. Enjoy
Plus – if you’ve not already done so please help us support Gay Kelleway as she rides in her Charity race next Thursday – she’s racing for a good cause (more on that below).
It’s Plate Day up at Newcastle…………………
4.15 – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y CH4
Past Northumberland Plate Winners
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)
Key Northumberland Plate Trends
13/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
13/14 – Finished fifth or better last time out
12/14 – Came from stall 14 or lower
12/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
11/14 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/14 – Carried 8-12 or less
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/14 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 8 years)
3/14 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 14/1
Other Northumberland Plate Facts
No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 10 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001
Note: Used to be run on the turf
VERDICT: A tricky race to unravel this year as it’s the first time this historic race will be run on the new AW surface here at Newcastle. With that in mind we might have to tread carefully with the trends as we’ll have to see if they translate to this surface. That said, in terms of this stats piece that’s all we’ve got to go on and being run over this sort of trip there is still a good chance the same profile of horse will rise to the top. So after taking key stats into account like age, recent form and draw there are five horses that standout – Saigon City, Nakeeta, My Reward, Polarisation and Nearly Caught.
There is no real harm having 2 or 3 of these horses on your side. However, if we think the key draw trends that 12 of the last 14 winners came from stall 14 or lower will be translated to the AW track then NAKEETA (e/w) and MY REWARD (e/w) tick the box. Nakeeta has been handed stall 9 and after finishing in the top two in all his last five races then this consistent sort looks a big player. We last saw him running a head second in the Chester Cup and off just 3lbs higher has been given a great chance by the handicapper. Yes, this is his first run on an AW surface, but has won on good-to-firm on the turf so there is no reason to suggest it won’t suit.
My Reward is another in-form runner after winning at Haydock last time out. Five of the last 10 winners if this race were also in action at Haydock last time out and being a previous AW winner at Kempton then the surface should suit. He’s also just 3lbs higher for that last win and being this is also only his 12th career start there should be more to come from this Tim Easterby runner.
Newcastle TV Races Best Bets
2.30 – BURATINO
3.05 – BLAINE
3.40 – DANNYDAY (e/w)
Newmarket Best Bets…………………………
3.55 – John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4
12/14 – Won over 7f before
12/14 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
12/14 – Had at least 1 run already that season
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/14 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 5 runnings)
3/14 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
Markaz won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2
VERDICT: A tight-looking race for a Group Three with not a lot between most of these on the ratings. Dark Emerald and Birchwood are the two past course and distance winners in the field so that gives them chances, especially BIRCHWOOD as he’ll find this a lot easier than the Group Ones he’s been contesting. Being the only 3 year-old in the race he also gets 9lbs from all the others and considering he’s actually the highest-rated in the field and already a winner at Group Two level then that extra weight pull gives him a huge advantage. Of the others, Breton Rock is a consistent sort that has finished in the top four on his last six starts and shouldn’t be far away, but has become hard to win with – he’s now 10 runs without a victory and that was back in August 2014. John Gosden won this in 2008 so his Muwaary is another to note. This 5 year-old returned after a long time off to run an excellent third at York a few weeks ago and should be a lot better for that outing. Another winning yard of this race is the William Haggas team – they took the pot in 2006, so their Adaay is another to note but jockey Paul Hanagan – who had the pick – prefers Muwaary. So Beloved is the final one worth a mention. He won’t mind the ground and is another that rarely runs a bad race so should not be far away, but we’ll stick with Birchwood here.
Newmarket TV Races Best Bets
2.45 – MR SINGH
3.20 – SIMMIE
Can Epsom Derby winner, Harzand, Follow-up in Ireland
5.20 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f
Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats
13/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
11/13 – Won by an Irish-based yard
11/13 – Won a Group race before
11/13 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Failed to win their last race
9/13 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/13 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
6/13 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (2 winners, Australia & Camelot)
3/13 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 4/1
VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien camp, who have won the Irish Derby, a staggering 11 times will have 50% of the 8 strong field on their side as they look for another victory, but Idaho is clearly their main hope. This 3 year-old was third in the Epsom Derby and on that form would have a big say no returning to the track that was responsible for this horse’s sole career win.
Everything looks in place for a big run, but you’d just be worried this horse is now four runs without a win, while he’s got 2 ¾ lengths to find with the Derby winner, HARZAND, who also lines-up here. Yes, the O’Brien camp have a cracking record in the race, but Harzand might be a tough nut to crack. The Dermot Weld yard have taken this race twice before, most-recently with Grey Swallow in 2004. He didn’t look like he was stopping at Epsom last time out and despite never racing here at the Curragh there is no reason to suggest it won’t suit. Add in that he’s had Idaho in behind in his last two races now then there is also no real reason to suggest the O’Brien horse can turn that form around.
Yes, the horse could have done with a bit more rain, but he clearly improved for the step-up to 1m4f last time and looks set to go in and give his famous owner – the Aga Khan – his sixth winner in the Irish Derby after taking it with the likes of Shergar (1981), Sinndar (2000) and Alamshar (2003) in recent times.
Support Gay Kelleway at Newbury…………….All For A Good Cause!
Our very own GAY KELLEWAY is dusting down the riding boots and getting back in the saddle – all for a good cause. Yes, on Thursday June 30th Gay will be in action at Newbury to ride in a charity race and she’d love your support. Gay has fired in plenty of winners for all of us here at TQ with her top weekly advice over the years so now is the time to repay her with a small donation.
“I am riding in the Charity Race at Newbury in memory of Christian Marner and John Hills and also to remember my father who died from pancreatic cancer. Cancer affects so many of us in different ways and I like to create awareness wherever I can.
Donating through JustGiving is simple, fast and totally secure. Your details are safe with JustGiving – they’ll never sell them on or send unwanted emails. Once you donate, they’ll send your money directly to the charity. So it’s the most efficient way to donate – saving time and cutting costs for the charity.” Gay Kelleway.