Jun 04 2016 @ 11:23
Hi, it’s ‘Derby Day’ on the Epsom Downs today as we get set for another ‘must-see’ renewal of the world’s greatest flat race. Will it be Frankie and John Gosden again? Or will Aidan O’Brien land his sixth victory in the big race?
No matter what happens we are all set for a top afternoon of high-class action with the Coronation Cup and the Epsom Dash also on the Derby card – we’ve got all the LIVE C4 races covered from a trends angle, plus, as always, our verdicts on each contest – some nice winners last week so hopefully we can continue that form into this Saturday – but the stats will at least help you narrow down the fields! Enjoy the action.
Don’t forget a lot of our members use this info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!!
DERBY DAY – who’ll enter the history books?…………………..
2.00 – Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y CH4
13/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Never run at Epsom before
11/13 – Had won over 1m before (4 over 1m2f)
10/13 – Placed last time out
10/13 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
10/13 – Carried 8-10 or more
9/13 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Favourites that were placed
8/13 – Horses placed from stall 1
4/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Winners from stall 1
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Sylvester Kirk
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8.4/1
Stall 2 has just one place to its name in the last 12 runnings
VERDICT: The Sylvester Kirk and Sir Michael Stoute stables both have decent records in this contest having won it fives between them since 2006. Therefore, the Kirk yards Gawdawpalin, who gets in here off bottom weight, is of interest. This horse has finished second in two of this last three outings and despite running below-par last time in similar company to this you feel might be a bit better than that run – plus the horse wasn’t done any favours when carried right in the closing stages that day. The Stoute team also look to have another great chance of adding to their 2006, 2008 and 2015 wins with POET’S WORLD. This 3 year-old was a nice winner last time at Nottingham and the fact the stable step him up into this grade on his handicap debut suggests they think he’s up to the task. Yes, soft ground is a bit of an unknown, but Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking and there should be more to come from this lightly-raced sort. Of the rest, horses from stall one have done well in recent years – 8 of the last 13 have been placed, with 3 winning. That’s good news, therefore, for the Hugo Palmer-trained Banish, while Finelcity and Medburn Dream are worth second glances based on them being previous course winners. Dettori and Gosden team-up with Cartago who could build on his return run second, while the powerful Mark Johnston stable run three – Soldier In Action, Champagne City and Bathos, with the last-named looking their main hope.
2.35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y CH4
12/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
11/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6 or 7
11/13 – Had won between 4-6 times before
11/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/13 – Had raced within the last month
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Epsom before
7/13 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
4/13 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/13 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
VERDICT: A lot of past winners have done well in this race but the winner 12 months ago – Arabian Queen – doesn’t go this year (goes in the Coronation Cup later in the day), while despite having good records in the contest trainers Saeed Bin Suroor, Roger Charlton and Sir Michael Stoute also don’t have runners this year. The Mick Channon stable took the prize in 2009 – they run Epsom Icon and being the only 3 year-old in the race gets a valuable 12lbs from the others. She’s also the only previous course winner in the line-up so that gives her a big advantage – looks a big player, with her only negative being that both career victories have been over 7f. With her weight allowance she’s closely matched with the highest-rated in the field – SAYANA. This French raider heads here having won her last three and with this being just her fifth career outing then there could be a lot more still to come. Any ease in the ground will be fine having won in very soft conditions over in France, while the French raiders have done well at this meeting in the past – top jockey, Christophe Soumillon, rides. Oakley Girl and Persona Grata are others to note, but really on these terms Sayana and Epsom Icon looks the ones to stick with for us.
3.10 – Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup (Sponsored by Investec) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4
13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
13/13 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
12/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/13 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (two won)
8/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Won by Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
5/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Had run at Epsom before
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011)
1/13 – Winner from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1
VERDICT: Another fascinating race with several star names lining-up. Yes, only 8 runners entered and really only 3-4 of those look worthy of considering. Arabian Queen, who won on this card 12 months ago and was also one of just two horses to beat Golden Horn last year when landing the Juddmonte International Stakes at York. She gets weight being a mare and is actually the only previous course winner in the field – if all 8 stand their ground then she must rate the each-way value in the race. The Aidan O’Brien yard will be looking for their eighth win in the event and pin their hopes this year on Found. She’s won just shy of £2million in total prize money and only finished out of the top three once in 14 starts. She rounded-off last season by beating Golden Horn at the Breeders’ Cup over this trip and on that form would be the one to beat. However, she’s been slightly disappointing this season by winning a Group Three and then being well-beaten at odds-on at the Curragh a few weeks ago in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. Simple Verse is the current St Leger champ and has finished in the first two in all of her last seven starts. We can expect her to have come on a lot for her return run when second in a Group Two at Newmarket and, like Found and Arabian Queen, gets a handy 3lbs from the male horses. However, the one to beat looks to be the 124-rated POSTPONED. This Roger Varian-trained 5 year-old heads here having won his last four, including the Dubai Sheema Classic last time out at Meydan. He’s the highest-rated in the field, but, yes, does have to give 3lbs to three classy mares which won’t be easy. Softer ground won’t be an issue, with the only real black mark being that he’s yet to run here at Epsom, but there is no reason to suggest the course won’t suit – Andrea Atzeni continues in the saddle.
3.45 – Investec Corporate Banking “Dash” (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f CH4
14/14 – Didn’t win last time out
13/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (11 within the last 4 weeks)
11/14 – Came from stall 8 or higher
11/14 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
10/14 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
9/14 – Had raced at Epsom previously (only 2 had won)
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/14 – Won by the Dandy Nicholls stable (2002, 2003, 2005, 2009)
3/14 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/14 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 15/1
VERDICT: Blink and you might miss this – billed as one of the fastest 5f tracks in the world the Epsom Dash is always a ‘must-see’ spectacle – we’ve actually got the last three winners of the race – Caspian Prince, Desert Law and Duke Of Firenze – all lining up again this year too! They join Humidor and Normal Equilibrium as the five previous course and distance winners in the race. Looking at the trends 10 of the last 14 winners were aged between 5-8 years-old, while 11 of the last 14 winners carried 9-1 or less in weight and came from stall 8 or higher. Taking those key trends into account then the 2013 winner Duke Of Firenze (e/w) looks a huge player. The horse is now with the David Griffiths yard and heads here in cracking form after three good recent runs, including a nice win at York last time out. He’s up another 5lbs here, but is actually still 2lbs lower than when taking this prize three years ago when trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Draw 20 looks ideal and so does 8-11 in weight. He does fall down on one big trend though – all of the last 14 winners failed to win last time out. With that in mind another horse that ticks a lot of the key stats is KIMBERELLA (e/w). This 6 year-old was a close third at York last time out and off the same mark looks set to go well. Draw 19 is fine and with just 8-8 he gets weight from most of the others. The Dandy Nicholls camp also took this in 2009 so know what’s required, while jockey Frederik Tylicki catches the eye in the saddle.
4.30 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4
14/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/14 – Raced no more than 5 times before
14/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Had won a Group race before
13/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Won from a single-figure stall
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Favourites that were placed
9/14 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
9/14 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/14 – Had won a Group One before
6/14 – Irish-trained winners
6/14 – Won by the favourite
4/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 5 in all)
4/14 – Won the Dante Stakes (York, 12th May) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/14 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/14 – Won over 1m4f before
0/14 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 7/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer/Jockey Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013 & 2014
Kieren Fallon rode the winner in 2004, 2003 & 1999
VERDICT: In contrast, to the Oaks it was only four years ago that we saw a horse take both the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby (Camelot 2012), while the classy Sea The Stars also achieved the feat in 2009.
So with that in mind this year’s 2,000 Guineas winner, Galileo Gold, would have been a popular choice, but the Hugo Palmer team have since performed an in-depth breeding analysis on the horse and have come to the conclusion he wouldn’t be as effective over 1m4f and are, therefore, keeping him to the shorter trips.
In recent years by far the best trial has been the Dante Stakes, run at York last month, with horses like Motivator, Authorised and last year’s winner, Golden Horn, all using that race as their stepping stone to Epsom glory. Therefore, the winner of this year’s race – WINGS OF DESIRE – now looks a big player. This John Gosden-trained 3 year-old is improving rapidly and with Frankie set to ride in the Derby then it could be a total repeat of last year with this deadly combination landing both the Dante and Derby inside four weeks!
The race has actually been a decent one for the market leader in recent times with 10 of the last 14 being placed, while 6 of those favourites won. At this stage Wings Of Desire is disputing the top spot in the betting with the Aidan O’Brien-trained US Army Ranger, with the Dante runner-up Deauville around 7/1. US Army Ranger is yet to lose from two runs, but you feel he might need to improve a bit based on his hard-fought Chester Vase win last time out.
The shrewd Dermot Weld yard are also feared so their Harzand is of interest. This 3 year-old has won his last two and despite needing a step forward is clearly thought capable of holding his own in a race of this nature. Any rain would be a plus with both wins coming in heavy conditions, plus he holds further fancy entries later in the year. The Stoute-trained Ulysses is another that’s been well-supported in recent weeks after his 8 length Newbury romp and is another that’s clearly held in high-regard, but that was just a maiden win last time out so this is a huge step up in class and so a lot has to be taken on trust.
The boys in blue of Godolphin are surprisingly still looking for their first Derby winner – although trainer Saeed Bin Suroor did win the race in 1995 with Lammtarra. They will be trying to put that right this year with Moonlight Magic and Cloth of Stars. The first-named hails from the powerful Irish yard of Jim Bolger and based on his recent Group Three win in Ireland looks a real improver – the Bolger yard took this in 2008 with New Approach. Cloth of Stars comes from the French yard of Andrew Fabre and could be anything after his two recent wins in France.
So, similar to the Oaks, we are really looking for horses that raced in the last five weeks and that are 7/1 or shorter in the betting – add in a top two finish last time out and being a previous Group race winner then everything points to the recent Dante Stakes winner, WINGS OF DESIRE, who should also have a lot more to come with that recent win only his third career start. The way he stayed-on up the long York straight also suggests the step back up to 1m4f (has won that trip before) will be another big plus, so let’s get set for a Frankie/Gosden Derby Double!!