May 28 2016 @ 11:01
Hi, as we head into another Bank Holiday weekend there’s plenty going on with the C4 cameras heading to Haydock and Chester to take in seven races this Saturday – yes, the quality of racing might be a tad down for your average Saturday but we’ve still some nice Group contests at Haydock to enjoy, plus racing around the tight turns of the Roodee at Chester is always a spectacle not to be missed!
It will then be full steam ahead towards the Epsom Oaks and Derby next weekend, while Royal Ascot will then quickly follow during the middle of June – so plenty to look forward to.
Before that though we’ve got EVERY LIVE race at Haydock covered for you this weekend, plus the usual key trends for these races.
Don’t forget a lot of our members use this info to lay horses as well as back them – there are plenty of angles these days with the betting exchanges!!
Right – onto this weekend’s action……………
Haydock Park – We’ve Got The TV Races Covered
2.00 – £25 Free Bet At 188Bet Handicap Cl3 1m CH4
10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/10 – Rated between 82-90
8/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Had raced at Haydock before (4 won)
7/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/10 – Placed horses from stall 10
6/10 – Irish bred winners
3/10 – Winners from stall 10 (3 of last 5)
1/10 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
VERDICT: This contest has been dominated by horses aged 4 or 5 years-old in recent years – with 7 of the last 10 winners fitting that age bracket. The Tim Easterby yard took the prize 12 months ago so their Silvery Moon will be trying to add to that success, but at the age of 9 that horse falls outside the key age stat. In terms of the weight trend, then with 9 of the last 10 winners carrying 9-1 or less then this is certainly a big stat to take into account – if that’s to be repeated then there are only three that qualify – Ghinia, Captain Revelation and Ski Blast!
All three look interesting, but with the Pam Sly-trained, GHINIA, also ticking the ‘Irish-bred’ and ‘having raced at Haydock before’ trends then this 5 year-old stands out. She was a solid second last time out off this rating at Nottingham and with that being her first run since October then we can also expect her to come on for it. The faster ground is also a plus, while her previous form figures at the track read well – 5-2-2. Adam Kirby rides. Of the others, it could also be significant that 6 of the last 10 horses from stall 10 have been placed, with 3 of those actually winning (3 of the last 5).
With that in mind then the Frankie Dettori-ridden Strong Steps is another to note. He hails from the ever-improving Hugo Palmer stable and the horse should find this drop in grade to his liking after running a fair third in a better contest a few weeks ago at Newbury and rates a big threat to the pick.
2.35 – 188Bet.co.uk Stakes (Registered as The Pinnacle Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y CH4
13/13 – Had won over at least 10f before
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Aged 4 years-old
10/13 – Rated 92 or higher
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/13 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/13 – Had run at Haydock before
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Neil Callan
2/13 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Miss Marjurie won the race 12 months ag
VERDICT: The Denis Coakley-trained Miss Marjurie won this race 12 months ago and after a recent blow-out looks set to make a bold bid to defend her title. This 6 year-old is the only previous course and distance winner in the line-up, so that’s a big plus, and is yet to finish out of the top three in her two previous visits to the track. That recent run at the end of April was her first for 8 months so should be a lot fitter for it while jockey Oisin Murphy, who has won on the horse in the past, is back in the saddle – should go close.
Carnachy was in front of Miss Marjurie in that last race, so is another to have on your radar, but we expect them to be a lot closer today with fitness between the pair now on par. The stats suggest to look for horses aged 4 years-old with 10 of the last 13 winners fitting that age – good news for Namhroodah, Laganore, Journey, Carnachy and California. Of those, JOURNEY is the highest-rated in the field so looks sure to be popular in the market – especially with a certain Frankie Dettori getting the leg-up.
This horse will find this Group Three class a lot easier than the G1 & G2 races she’s run in of late and if reproducing her close second in the Middleton Stakes at York last time out would surely take all the beating here.
3.10 – Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4
13/13 – Rated 107 or higher
12/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had won over 7f before
10/13 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
4/13 – Had run at the track before
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Aged 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
VERDICT: The David O’Meara stable won this pot in 2014 and with two runners again this year will be looking to add to that success. Louis The Pious and So Beloved are their duo, but based on a good recent victory over this course and distance then So Beloved looks the better of the pair. He’s actually 2-from-2 here at the course and despite needing another step forward from Listed company into Group Three this time he looks a horse on the up. He does fall down on the key age trend being a 6 year-old, but does tick a lot of the others – like draw (4), current form, course form and having had a recent run. Another yard that have done well in this race is the Sir Michael Stoute team – they took the prize in 2009 and 2010.Convey is their representative here and with Ryan Moore riding will have every assistance from the saddle. He’s got a bit to find on these terms but is still lightly-raced (5 runs) and put in an improved run when second last time out at York in a Listed affair.
Breton Rock is the only other CD winner in the field and looks set to go well – but often runs well without winning so could be a solid each-way option. Adaay should be better for his recent run at Sandown in the Bet365 Mile and is a past Group Two winner so would have a big chance on that form, but stall 7 is not ideal – 11 of the last 13 winners came from 6 or lower. So Beloved is a danger, but the call here is HOME OF THE BRAVE. This 4 year-old is rated the highest in the race and returned to the track with a very eye-catching Listed win at Leicester. He’ll need another step forward in this grade but did it very nicely that day to suggest there should be more to come and will be running for the first time for Godolphin after they purchased the horse after its last win.
3.45 – 188Bet Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f CH4
12/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Had won between 1-3 times before
11/12 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
10/12 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – From stall 5 or higher
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/12 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/12 – Raced at York last time
2/12 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1
William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015
VERDICT: La Rioja and Quiet Reflection both get weight (3lbs) from all the others and so that gives them both a decent chance. Quiet Reflection was a recent Group Three winner in France so heads here in tip-top form, but up a grade makes life harder this time.
La Rioja has not been seen since winning at Salisbury last September, but she did that with the minimum of fuss and really could be anything, but the fact she’s already got a Group One entry in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot suggests connections might think a bit of her. As we already said she gets 3lbs from most of the others and that brings her right into the mix – the only key trend she falls down on is not having run in the last 6 weeks. Of the rest, the William Haggas tam have a good record in the race so their Ajaya is another to note. Gifted Master can do little wrong at the moment with five wins on the spin, and is sure to be popular, but this will be the highest-graded race he’s run in so we’ll see how good he really is.
Ryan Moore catches the eye riding the Richard Fahey-trained Donjuan Triumphant, but might have liked slightly softer ground. However, Godolphin’s BURATINO should find this a lot easier than the 2,000 Guineas he ran in last time (9th of 13), plus dropping back to 6f from a mile gives him a massive chance. He’s the highest-rated in the field and clearly wasn’t suited by the mile trip last time – his second in the Group One Middle Park last term makes him a big player and with just 9 career runs we might not have seen the best of him just yet over the sprint distances.
Best Bets – Other Saturday TV Races
2.15 – JUSTICE ANGEL
2.50 – OCEAN TEMPEST (e/w)
3.25 – TRENDSETTER (e/w)