Apr 23 2016 @ 07:13
Hi, as we head into another busy weekend of racing action the main focus this week is the cracking end-of-season trainers’ title battle that is playing out for us. After Paul Nicholls landed last weekend’s Scottish Grand National he’s set-up a ‘must-see’ finale with top Irish handler, Willie Mullins, as the pair both send armies of runners to the lucrative Sandown Bet365 Gold Cup card this Saturday – the final jumps fixture of the new season.
With bundles of prize money up for grabs we could see the momentum swing towards both trainers as the afternoon pans-out. Paul Nicholls will be chasing his ninth trainers’ title, while Willie Mullins, who has raided these shores for most of the main prizes this season will be looking to land the UK title for the first time.
In terms of actual winners, it’s a hugely contrasting story with Paul Nicholls (at the time of writing) having had 120 winners and has amassed £2,320,000 in total prize money, while Willie Mullins has notched just 25 times, but has won a staggering £2,266,000. So with just £50-55k between the pair, and more than enough prize money on offer at Sandown then we should be set for a ‘crackerjack’ of a day.
In other news – it’s been another top week here at Trainers-Quotes with more winners flying in from the top info received from our yards, including a 25/1 stonker from Jamie Snowden and daily doubles from Harry Dunlop and Michael Scudamore, plus an array of other top advice that’s resulted in one happy member sending us in this on Sunday morning
“Hi – just a quick e-mail to say thanks for the trainers quotes yesterday (Sat 16th April 2016) as I had a £2.5-win patent on Normandy King 9-2, On A Whim 4-1, and Mr Red Clubs 11/8 plus three single win bets, for an outlay of £62-50 I got a return of
£490.95 I also won £50 on the football during the week on your advice on a no-lose bet with bet365 keep up the good work. All the best, Graham”
Have a good weekend – and enjoy the racing!
Super Saturday at Sandown
3.00 – bet365 Oaksey Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f CH4
Just 2 previous running
Menorah won the race in 2014 & 2015
Al Ferof was second in the race 12 months ago
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Willie Mullins is 1 from 2 with his chasers at the track
Kerry Lee is 2 from 6 with her chasers at the track
Harry Skelton is 2 from 7 riding over fences at the track
VERDICT: MENORAH has taken this race for the last two years and despite his advancing years is certainly a big player again this time. Now 11 years-old this Philip Hobbs-trained horse loves this time of the year and seems to relish the Sandown track. A last-time out third at Aintree, behind Don Poli was a fair effort considering that horse has gone onto run well this season. Yes, he has a 140 day break to overcome, but he’s gone well fresh in the past and this race would have been a target for him all season – he should take all the beating and can hopefully land the three-timer in this race. Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls camp are well represented with Rocky Creek, Saphir De Rheu and Wonderful Charm so he should be picking up some prize money, while the best of the Mullins runners looks to be Valseur Lido, who gets a handy 5lbs from Menorah and based on his 6 length second to Vautour last time heads here as a big player too.
3.35 – bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4
13/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
10/13 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/13 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
8/13 – Rated 160 or higher
6/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/13 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Winning favourite
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Special Tiara won the race in 2015
Sire De Grugy won the race in 2013 & 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
VERDICT: With another £71k on offer to the winner here, but prize money on offer for all finishers then Paul Nicholls might hold the key here despite not having the first two in the betting. He’s got three in the race – Dodging Bullets, Solar Impulse and Ulck Du Lin – all three are unlikely winners based on recent form, but barring falls they should all bring home some sort of a prize to add to the Nicholls haul. That would ease the blow should the Willie Mullins-trained Un De Sceaux take the first prize.
However, his talented 8 year-old was firmly put in his place by SPRINTER SACRE in the Champion Chase at the Festival last month and that might be the case again. Nicky Henderson’s 10 year-old is also a past course and distance winner here at the track – and that is a big plus here at the Esher track. The tricky Railway Fences are a unique set of obstacles down the back straight, while the stiff uphill finish can often catch horses out too. The way Sprinter Sacre eased past Un De Sceaux at Cheltenham last time suggests he’s the one to beat. For champion, Sire De Grugy, makes up the field, but he’s been out of form of late and you feel it might be last chance saloon time for him here.
4.10 – bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y CH4
13/13 – Had raced in the last 56 days
12/13 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
10/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/13 – Had won over 3m or further before
9/13 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Aged 9 or younger
8/13 – Had raced in the last 25 days
8/13 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
8/13 – Officially rated 140 or higher
7/13 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/13 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/13 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/13 – Trained by Ferdy Murphy
2/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Won last time out
0/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 13.3/1
Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts
The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
20 of the last 25 winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 5 of the last 12 runnings
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
VERDICT: The feature race on the day and you feel that should Mullins or Nicholls land the first prize then that will surely give them a huge edge in taking the trainers’ title. A shocking race for the favourite though with the last market leader to land the prize being Beau in 2000. At this stage the Paul Nicholls-trained Southfield Theatre heads the betting so has that negative stat to overcome. A win here for this horse will give the Nicholls camp a big lift as they eye up another trainers’ title and being a past course winner he’s every chance. However, since his RSA Chase second last season he’s hardly set the world alight and heads here after being brought down last time out at the Cheltenham Festival. That said, he was looking as if he was coming into the race that day when coming to grief, and after running against the likes of Coneygree and Don Poli this season will find this a lot easier – but at the price he’s no value, with punters surely latching onto the Nicholls-factor.
Nicholls also runs Just A Par, who is a past CD winner here and has a lively chance too – especially with young Harry Cobden claiming 5lbs. Willie Mullins has two runners – Sir Des Champs and Measureofmydreams – both are respected, but the betting suggests Measureofmydreams is the better of the two. He gets in here with a lightweight, but also needs to bounce-back from a fall last time out at Ayr in the Scottish National. It was an early fall but he was clearly fancied that day as he went off favourite and would have a big chance based on his third the time before in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival. However, there could be another stable that spoils the party for both Nicholls and Mullins here as the Neil Mulholland team look to have a very strong hand too. They run The Druids Nephew, who was last seen being pulled up in the Aintree Grand National, while the also have THE YOUNG MASTER (e/w). This 7 year-old should have a lot more to come and his recent third of 23 at the Festival was a sign that he’s returning to form. He gets in here off a pound lower and with Sam Waley-Cohen taking off a further 3lbs then he’ll have just 10-12 to carry. He’s won 3 of this 9 chase starts, plus been placed in two more. Conditions should be ideal as he seems to act on most ground types and looks to have slipped to a very handy mark indeed based on past efforts.
Best Bets – Other Saturday TV Races
2.20 – DUKE STREET
2.10 – GLEN MOSS
3.20 – WILDE INSPIRATION
2.40 – MIRSAALE