Several items to touch on today.
Some learning ( I hope ) from the past
and a bit of look forward to the future.
I will get the obligatory shameless plug for our Saturday Day Pass out of the way first.
High quality racing analysis for Saturday at less than the average cost of a pint.
If you miss it this Saturday (10 am cut off ) , book in early for next Saturday
( till opens again as soon as the clock hits Sunday
That’s my ex Engineer’s feeble attempt at sales patter out of the way for this week.
Now you can relax.
ARC INSPIRED ANTE POST THOUGHTS
Firstly a global thank you to all of you who kindly replied back about
the last Free News on Oct 2nd which helped inspire you to back
Sottsass for The Arc.
If you missed it, contained within was all Guy’s Arc related commentary
pinched from the full service. There were several different extracts
from different days as things progressed along the timeline towards race day.
For some reason it got me thinking a bit about how different punter
brains may approach the whole question of Ante Post.
Picture as a starting point two reasonably normal blokes
meeting up over a pint this Saturday.
Bob asks Jim
“So who do you think will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year”
Jim then nominates his choice.
There is fair chance that if they met up once a month for the next few months
and Bob kept asking the same question Jim would be fairly rigid in his replies.
His opinion was past declared, his mind was set and Jim might even start
to get annoyed by Bob continually asking the same thing.
Now picture two other blokes at a socially acceptable distanced table in the same pub.
They too meet up once a month.
Frank is shrewd punter who likes to find a value investment.
George is a racing analyst who puts in long research hours.
Frank asks a similar but crucially different question.
Instead of asking “Who will win ” he instead asks George
“Who do you feel offers current value in the Gold Cup Market?”
There is significant chance that George’s answer to that
will not be the horse he feels most likely to win the race.
George may reply with the name of the true odds
7/1 shot available at 10/1 as opposed to the true odds
6/4 horse available at only even money.
In a month they meet up again and Frank asks the same question.
This time George’s answer could be very very different.
Lots could have happened in a month to influence the form
facts and information available upon which analyst George
bases his opinion. Market odds can change as well.
IF the same question is asked again at a month’s interval
to George the analyst it is not the same question at all.
Instead he may deem it a very different question entirely.
Perhaps in month 2 or month 3 new information leans him to believe
the favourite is now a true odds 5/4 chance and now offers value
as it has drifted to 7/4.
Frank is asking the right questions and George is
answering in appropriate style.
It could be worth pondering as well matching
more simplistic Bob up with analyst George.
Quite possible Bob may Decide George is a muppet
who changes his answer every time and can’t make up his mind.
This of course would be rooted in Bob’s lack of core understanding
about the right questions to ask or the nature of the entire beast.
Getting back to L’Arc again as per that last free newsletter
Guy’s early on in the process ante post suggestion was
£2.50 Each Way Sottsass 12/1-16/1 (1st)
£2.50 Each Way In Swoop 14/1-16/1 (2nd)
Fate and destiny then kicked in to make that
a good illustration of the advantage of Ante Post.
His opinion on actual day of race as per Frank above
continuously re evaluating as new information comes in was
£4.50 Each Way SOTTSAAS 6/1
£1.00 Win Bet IN SWOOP 8/1
As it happens he stuck to the same two horses on race day.
But that may not be the case for a different race some future day.
Not really sure why I am waffling on about this.
Perhaps within you suffering readers there may be someone
who has been a historic Bob style character who seeks a
static rigid long term answer to such questions.
If instead you can shift to the concept of an eternally
changing problem due to a continual flow of new information
then it has potential it improve one’s success a bit.
Obviously you will indeed come across those who
really can’t make their mind up about stuff.
But be aware that the correct and more professional way
is one of eternal reevaluation with different answers likely
to the correct questions, at different points in time.
END OF THE FLAT / START OF NH PROPER
This Saturday sees the end of the flat season with the Champions Day at Ascot.
More about a few of those Ascot races is later below.
Obviously a strange Covid impacted flat season this year.
Lock down messed things around for racing formbook folk a fair bit.
Much much less so for the upcoming National Hunt Season however.
For many “All roads lead to Cheltenham”
On the full member side of things Guy has been unable to resist
an early look at a few of the Cheltenham Ante Post markets this week.
Semi casual stuff he has punted with his own cash.
20% ers he was referring to them as.
eg If one normally bet £50 units then go 20% or £10
Low stake due to the obvious risk associated with longer term ante post.
But his strategy was not to go for the too highly speculative and more
so some credible contenders he likes and whom he feels are targeted at
their respective races and should run bar disaster.
Cheltenham here does not just start in March.
Things are perhaps a bit more like a car going
up slowly through the gears.
If March is top gear doing 100 mph on the motorway
( whoops sorry I meant 70 mph Mr Officer )
then this week is really just turning on the engine.
Over the course of the NH season to come he will no doubt
revisit the Cheltenham ante post conundrum multiple times.
Typically such longer term ante post thinking he may put out as semi casual.
ie he will avoid the more pompous official bet tag and instead just tell clients
what he has backed with his own cash and why.
Not everyone likes ante post.
The idea of losing money on a non runner is distasteful.
Others very much appreciate it and love the idea of
hitting the festival with some good prices
secured on now much shorter odds runners.
Casual as opposed to official makes it easier for clients
to pick either follow or avoid to best suit themselves.
Anyhow NH Season here we come.
We are very much looking forward to it.
Most years around this time I will get an email in my inbox
that roughly says..
” I only like the NH season and do not like the flat.
Is it possible to do some sort of deal for the full service
for the time between now and the end of the NH season?”
My global answer to that one would be yes.
We have no fancy high hype season deal style webpage
but feel free to ping me an email and I can help sort you out.
Some sort of volume discount would be appropriate to make it cheaper
than the sum of individual months. No mad panic.
The till “end of nh season” concept will still be valid in a month etc.
We have several clients who come back year after year under this rough arrangement.
Some of them only want Flat season.
Others are very much in the National Hunt only boat.
If such and idea is a match to you well such concepts are not unsortable
as alternate to a more classic monthly approach.
Just shout back.
Guy has had minor early look mid week at a few of this Saturdays
end of Flat season races at Ascot.
I will pass on all he said about the Balmoral Handicap 4:15
and then a redacted note about the British Champions Long Distance Cup 1.20
Balmoral Handicap ( originally sent to full members on Thursday )
Saturday October 17th
Raaeq 5/1 Tempus 7/1 King Ottokar 8/1
Keats 9/1 Bell Rock 10/1 Kynren 10/1
Raising Sand 10/1 Brunch 12/1 Cap Francais 12/1
Hartswood 12/1 Matthew Flinders 12/1 Njord 12/1
Chance 14/1 Montatham 14/1 Sagauteur 14/1
Blue Mist 16/1 Escobar 16/1 Power of Darkness 16/1
River Nymph 16/1 Shelir 16/1 Solid Stone 16/1
Walhaan 16/1 Alternative Fact 20/1 Bear Force One 20/1
Fleeting Prince 20/1 Greenside 20/1 Grove Ferry 20/1
Hortzadar 20/1 Orbaan 20/ Prince Eiji 20/1 Revich 20/1
Tulfarris 20/1 Plantadream 25/1 Symbolize 25/1
Baronial Pride 33/1 Graignes 33/1 Hayadh 33/1
Overwrite 33/1 Ropey Guest 33/1 Raakib Alhawa 40/1
Crownthorpe 50/1 Nicholas T 50/1
6 Past renewals
43 horses entered
Declarations later today
Just having a first look
Horses rated under 95
Are unlikely to get a run
RAAEQ is favourite
He is a 3yo with just 5 runs
Strong claims on his last run
But hard to trust Brian Meehan
September to November
7f Handicaps in Class 2
With over 10 runners in them
Horses aged 3
Under 6 career starts
Have a 0-38 record in them
RAAEQ with just 5 runs
Is one run short statistically
From being matchable to a winner
RAAEQ unlikely to be my selection
RAISING SAND won’t be
Not as an 8 year old 122 days off
MONTALTHAM looks unsuitable
He will fail too many angles
Some interesting angles
Albeit low sample sizes
All 6 winners were male
They were aged 4 or 5
Horses aged 3 are 0-20
Horses aged 6 + are 0-44
Horses with 9st 7lbs + are 0-17
All 6 winners ran within 3 weeks
Horses absent longer are 0-41
All 6 winners came from Class 2
No past winner of this race
Were beaten over 8 lengths last time
Applying these angles
But being flexible with them
We end up with this shortlist
BELL ROCK 10/1
SOLID STONE 16/1
KING OTTOKAR 8/1
ALTERNATIVE FACT 20/1
Will be able to reduce this
Not all of these should run
British Champions Long Distance Cup ( sent to full members on the 13th )
Long Distance Cup
4/5 Stradivarius 5/1 Search For A Song
7/1 Fujaira Prince 101 Spanish Mission 12/1 Broome
12/1 Dawn Patrol 14/1 Morando 14/1Sovereign
14/1 Subjectivist 20/1 Trueshan 25/1 Max Vega
33/1 Monica Sheriff 33/1 Mildenberger 50/1 Raa Atoll
66/1 Dubious Affair
This race changed in 2010
Ascot stole it for Champions day
Formerly the Jockey Club Stakes
Nobody doubts his ability
Well clear on official ratings
But only 13 days ago
he had a hard race in the Arc
Finishing 7th on heavy ground
This is a very quick comeback
This could easily come too soon
I remember Order Of St George
Beaten at odds on back in 2016
Having ran 13 days ago in the Arc
Can not bet him at odds on here
With a hard recent race on heavy
STRADIVARIUS is up half a mile
No past winner of this race
Or the Jockey Club Stakes
Won coming from 1m 4f or less
Horses from 1m 4f or less 0-30
Want to oppose him each way
REDACTED FROM HERE
I don’t normally do Redacted style.
Just felt I had to here as Guy
went on to discuss a horse he might
be officially betting on Saturday.
Runner or not / going / draw / day of race odds
will all impact his final decision there.
I am a bit wary of doing what Dr Who Time Lords are not supposed to do.
ie change the future.
eg IF 1000 of you on free news all hammer his horse down tonight then
he may not be able to justify officially betting it tomorrow.
Me and my big mouth get a rollicking from Guy and I limp away tail between my legs.
Imperfect I know but the way I feel it has to be on this occasion.
In the flip side you can see that his clear strategy for the race
could perhaps be summed up as
– Stradivarius respected but not without flaw.
– Market Odds considered too short.
– Oppose with an each way alternate.
Just a bit of extra insight for you in case it helps understand things here a bit better.
Most specifically the section above about early looks at weekend races.
Just so there is no chance of any confusion or ambiguity
I am of course going to describe it all in the language of cake.
Most of the message content from here from Guy normally refers to races running that day.
But in addition to that he will also often throw in the addition
of early look ahead to an upcoming more major race.
Now consider yourself hungry for cake.
There are various ways you can go about securing cake.
#1 – 100% DIY. Go to the shops buy your own flour, eggs
turnip or whatever secret ingredient you want to put in it.
Mix it all up, mess up your kitchen, hopefully don’t burn it
get her iced up and one cake is secured.
#2 – Go to the supermarket and buy pre made cake in a box.
Pay through the nose for the E numbers you are getting but it saves time and effort.
In the world of bakery some of Guy’s early work research is more akin
to the in between idea of
#3 – Have a baker who knows how to secure quality flour and great free range eggs
deliver to your door pre made dough / batter.
A lot of the messy work is pre done to a quality standard.
You can then concentrate on putting your own flare on it.
Square tin or circular?
Iced or jammed?
A circle of cherries or just one at the top?
Existing clients here are a mixed bunch.
Some much prefer final day of race opinions from Guy.
Others will get good benefit from extra early dough
and will really enjoy the challenge of putting their
own personal stamp on things. Dough a few days early
assists with such ideas.
Dough users I suspect also tread a path of accelerated self development.
Water wings of small stakes or paper trading can be applied at first.
Confidence and ability can grow with practice.
But it is a not correct answer for all style of issue.
Some people much prefer being told what to do and what to think.
Their own skills if so may remain more static over time.
Others are much more drawn to the idea of assessing information
and making their own final suits them best decisions.
Like an exercised muscle it improves over time.
Horses for courses as they say.
Best of Luck