-
Jul 30 2016 @ 11:02
Richard Dunwoody MBE posted an update in the group Horse Racing 7 years, 8 months ago
Hi, It’s been a cracking week down at Glorious Goodwood, but we’ve still once day of the meeting to go – with the Nassau Stakes and the Stewards’ Cup the feature contests. As always we take a look at the main LIVE C4 races, giving you our TQ verdict, plus the main stats to apply to each contest – we hope they help point you in the direction of a few winners
Glorious Goodwood – Day Five Finale…………
2.00 – Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f
12/12 – Didn’t win their last race
11/12 – Raced at Goodwood previously
11/12 – Had won over 6f previously
10/12 – Won at least 3 times during their career
9/12 – Had 4 or more runs that season
9/12 – Finished 4th or worse in their last race
8/12 – Favourites unplaced
7/12 – Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
7/12 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
7/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
6/12 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
3/12 – Won by the David Nicholls yard
3/12 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/12 – Ridden by Adrian Nicholls
2/12 – Favourites (none in the last 10 years)
0/12 – 3 year-old winners
The last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more
7 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
Horse from stall 3 has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 14/1VERDICT: 3 year-olds don’t have the best recent record in this race so Projection, despite having Ryan Moore riding, has that age stat to overcome, but we’ve two of the last three winners of the race lining-up again in Barnet Fair and Seeking Magic. Barnet Fair is 6lbs lower than his past win in the contest so would have a great chance if bouncing back to that form, while Seeking magic is 3lbs higher than his win in the race. Horses from stall one have not done well in recent runnings so last time out winner Soie D’ Leau might be overlooked. Don’t’ worry too much if your fancy heads here off the back of a slightly below-par run as 9 of the last 12 finished fourth or worse last time out, while ALL of the last 12 failed to win their latest outing. In terms of the weight trend to note it’s interesting that ALL of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more, but with 7 of the last 10 winners having between 9-0 and 9-5 then this weight stat, coupled with the other main trends, points us towards three horses – FAST TRACK (e/w), MISTERIOSO (e/w) and HANDSOME DUDE (e/w). Fast Track was a solid fourth last time out behind Kimberella and should be closer getting a weight pull and was a fair sixth – beaten just 3 lengths – in this race 12 months ago off a 6lb higher mark. Misterioso is a consistent sort that is thought capable enough to cope with this step up in grade, while Handsome Dude has a fair bit to prove on recent runs, but, like Fast Track, hails from the shrewd David Barron yard and could go well with so many stats in his favour at a nice each-way price.
2.35 – Qatar Handicap (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f CH4
12/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Winning favourites
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
9/12 – Rated between 85-93
8/12 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
7/12 – Won over 1m4f previously
6/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
5/12 – Won their last race
4/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Ridden by Seb Sanders
2/12 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/12 – Favourites
7 of the last 10 winners came from stall 10 or lower
Horses from stall 10 have won 2 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 8/1VERDICT: With trainers Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston having won 5 of the last 12 runnings of this race then their army of runners are sure to be popular. Stoute runs Shraaoh and SHABBAH (e/w), plus with Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore riding them then we can expect these to both be popular, but of the pair Shabbah just shades it. This 3 year-old was a beaten favourite last time out but still ran a decent second that day at Ascot – beaten just ahead. He’s up just 4lbs for that but there should be more to come and stall 10 looks ideal (7 of the last 10 winners came from stall 10 or lower). The Johnston camp also have several heading to post with Beaverbrook, Soldier In Action, Regal Monarch and JAAMEH (e/w) their entries. All four have a chance coming from this powerful yard that are having a cracking week at the track, but the last-named – Jaameh – could be their best chance. Drawn in stall 1 and ridden by Paul Hanagan this 3 year-old was a fine second last time at Ripon on just his fifth career run so there should be more to come. Yes, this is a step up in grade but the horse is clearly thought capable of holding his own and gets in here with just 8-3 to carry – a very light weight. Regal Monarch is a consistent sort that has finished in the top three in all his last six starts so looks a great each-way shout. Of the rest, Move Up comes from the Godolphin yard and was a nice winner at Ascot last time, while the in-form Knights Table, who has won his last three, plus recent winners Emperor Napoleon and Gold Faith are others that tick several of the key trends.
3.10 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y CH4
12/12 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
11/12 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
9/12 – Winning Favourites
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Had won over 1m2f previously
8/12 – Had won a Group One race previously
8/12 – Won between 2-4 times before
3/12 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/12 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
2/12 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
7 of the last 10 winners were drawn 7 or lower
Stalls 1, 6 and 7 have won 6 of the last 10 renewals
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2VERDICT: Only five runners head to post here but it’s hard to get away from MINDING. This season’s English Oaks winner followed that up with a smooth victory in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last time out and really with 8lbs in-hand on the official ratings it would be a major upset if she wasn’t good enough to take this under Ryan Moore and give trainer Aidan O’Brien his first win in the race since 2008. Of the rest, the John Gosden-trained Swiss Range might have the most improvement in her and with Frankie Dettori in the saddle might have most to offer against the favourite, with Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance and the French raider Jemayel looking the next best.
3.45 – Qatar Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4
13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
13/13 – Had won over 6f before
12/13 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
12/13 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
10/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Placed favourites (top 4)
9/13 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
9/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
7/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/13 – Raced at Goodwood before
4/13 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/13 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/13 – William Haggas
1/13 – Winning 3 year-olds
8 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure draw
Stall 18 has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/1VERDICT: Considering this being an ultra-competitive handicap the favourite has actually got a fair record in the race – winning 4 of the last 13, while 9 of the last 13 have been placed. With that in-mind keep an eye on the market, but at this stage Dancing Star and Orion’s Bow look set to fight out that top berth in the betting market. Both head here in-form and off the back of wins, while ORION’S BOW is actually on a six-timer after a string of victories in recent months. Another 6lb rise in the ratings doesn’t look too harsh based on his recent win being by 3 ¼ lengths and really he could actually be improving to be a class above handicaps now – ground and trip are fine, while the Dandy Nicholls camp love to have winners here at this meeting.
8 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall so that that into account, while trainer William Haggas has a good record in the race – he runs RAUCOUS (e/w). This 3 year-old was a close third to The Tin Man last time out at Newbury in a Group Three and this should be easier. Stall 20 is fine and with just 8-12 then he looks to have a nice weight too. Of the rest, Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking for the Richard Fahey-trained Growl, plus Toofi should run better than his recent form figures suggest he might – he was only beaten 4 ¼ lengths in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time out and is a pound lower this time. Horses from stall 18 have done well in recent years so Moonraker will be trying to uphold that trend. The final one worth a mention is Kimberella (e/w). This horse has had a cracking season and has been placed in the top four in all his last 8 starts. Another from the Dandy Nicholls yard and the horse will be full of confidence after an easy win at York last time out – a 4lb rise doesn’t look too harsh.