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Jul 16 2016 @ 08:18
Richard Dunwoody MBE posted an update in the group Horse Racing 7 years, 8 months ago
A slightly quieter week just gone and the C4 racing this Saturday is slightly down – in terms of quality – on what we are used to, but we’ve still eight C4 races to take in, including the Weatherbys Super Sprint from Newbury – an ultra-valuable race for the 2 year-olds that’s seen the Richard Hannon and Richard Fahey camps win the races for the last three years. Plus, don’t forget, the Irish Oaks from the Curragh – a race Aidan O’Brien will be trying to win for the fifth time – while we’ve also a big day at Market Rasen with their Summer Plate and Summer Hurdle. We’ve got it all covered!
It’s also been another great week for the Trainers-Quotes.com yards with plenty of winners – most notably an 80/1 success from Mick Appleby that prompted one happy member to let us know about the £10 e/w they placed on Tan Arabiq that returned him a cool £980!!
It’s also been a top week for several other trainers – here’s just a few examples…………..
Market Rasen – Top Summer Jumping Action………………
2.15 – Betfred TV Summer Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f CH4
13/14 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
12/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/14 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
8/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/14 – Had run at Market Rasen before
3/14 – Ridden by Denis O’Regan
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Winning favourites
The last 10 winners carried 11-5 or less
7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-0 or less
6 of the last 10 winners retuned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Dr Richard Newland won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1VERDICT: Several leading players here with some of the ‘big boy’ yards sending runners. The Paul Nicholls-trained Moabit is sure to be popular coming from this powerful stable and has done little wrong by winning his last four – the last of those being by an impressive 19 lengths! Red Tornado is another that will catch the punter eye having won his last four too. He comes from the Dan Skelton camp and this former useful flat performer certainly won’t lack for pace. However, both these horses are 4 year-olds and with 12 of the last 14 winners aged either 5 or 6 years-old then this is a huge stat against them. The top-weight, Gwafa, comes from the Paul Webber camp who won this in 2010 so know what’s needed. This 5 year-old ticks the age trend and already has some decent hurdles form to his name, but does fall down on the main weight and last run trends. So it might be worth taking a chance on the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained ROBINSHILL (e/w). Yes, this 5 year-old was a beaten odds-on favourite last time out at Cartmel, but that tight track doesn’t always suit horses and the time before won well at Ffos Las. Connections take off a handy 5lbs from the saddle with Jamie Bargary’s claim and are also no strangers to winning this race – they took the pot in 2009. A lightweight, a key age and a run within the last 3 weeks are all big trends this horse has on its side.
2.45 – Betfred Summer Plate (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y CH4
14/14 – Had run within the last 3 months
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
12/14 – Aged 7 or older
11/14 – Had won 2 or more chases before
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/14 – Won their previous race
8/14 – Had run at Market Rasen before
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/14 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/14 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 6)
Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
It’s A Gimme won the race in 2014VERDICT: Plenty of key trends to note here. The Dr Richard Newland and Peter Bowen are other yards that have done well in this race in the past so anything they run should be noted – at this stage they run Cut The Corner and Tony Star. However, with 9 of the last 14 winners finishing first or second last time out then this narrows down a lot of the runners. We’ve also seen 12 of the last 14 winners aged 7 or older so that further puts a line through several on the key runners like – Theinval (aged 6). So the one that catches the eye is the – already-mentioned – Dr Richard Newland-trained CUT THE CORNER (e/w). This 8 year-old won by an impressive 17 lengths here over course and distance a few weeks ago and a 9lb rise might not be enough to stop him going in close again. Yes, this is a tougher race, but he’s one of just a few recent winners in the race and previous CD form here is another big plus. Add in that the yard know what’s required to win the race and a light racing weight then everything points to a solid run. Henryville and Long House Hall are others to note and rate the main dangers in an open-looking race.
O’Brien Eyes Another Irish Oaks……………
5.45 – Darley Irish Oaks (Group 1) 1m4f
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Won over 1m4f before
6/13 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
6/13 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
6/13 – Won by a UK-based trainer
5/13 – Had won a Group One before
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
4/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 4/1VERDICT: Like most years this race is, once again, dominated by a certain Aidan O’Brien with several entries but his EVEN SONG, who we last saw running away with the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot is the clear number one pick. This 3 year-old beat another of today’s runners, Ajman Princess, by 1 ½ lengths that day and with this being just his fifth career start there should be more to come. Of the rest, the Architecture was second in the Epsom Oaks so commands respect too, but was 5 lengths behind Even Song last time so needs to find a bit more. Harlequuen was third in the English Oaks so is another to note and would be a great winner for the Mick Channon camp, but you feel that another step forward might be needed.
C4 Best Bets, Plus Super Sprint Trends & Verdict……………
4.10 – Newbury: Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f34y CH4
11/12 – Had won over 5f before
11/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/12 – Won 1-2 times before
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
6/12 – Irish bred horses
6/12 – Won by a Feb or March foal
6/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Won by a filly
4/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/12 – Winners from stall 1
3/12 – Winning favourites
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1VERDICT: A huge pot, as always, up for grabs for these 2 year-olds so it’s no surprise the race is well-supported again. It’s been a race the Richard Hannon and Richard Fahey horses have done very well in – between the two yards they’ve picked up the first prize in all of the last three years. The Hannon camp pin their hopes on just one horse – Stormy Clouds – but at least he’s well-raced with six career runs and will have the experience edge over a lot of these. His last run in a Listed race at Sandown wasn’t a bad effort and before that was only beaten 7 lengths behind the classy Lady Aurelia in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. That form would certainly make her a leading player her. In contrast the Fahey team run several, well actually an army – Six Strings, Carson City, In First Place, Good Time Ahead, Boundsy, White Royale & Lucky Mistake. They are all respected given the stables good recent record in this valuable race, but jockey bookings suggest LADY IN QUESTION (Paul Hanagan) and SIX STRINGS (Tony Hamilton) are the ones to focus on. Lady In Question was a neck winner on debut at Thirsk so might need a bit more but the booking of Hanagan is a plus and is also entered in several other top sales races later in the season so must be well-regarded. Six Strings was second on his only start on the AW at Newcastle. He was only just beaten that day so there should be more to come, while the switch to turf should be a plus. Copper Knight and Super Julius are others that stand out
C4 TV Races Best Bets
Newbury
2.30 – JELLY MONGER (e/w)
3.00 – SCOTTISH
3.35 – THE TIN MANNewmarket
3.15 – GRAND INQUISITOR
3.50 – SHALL WE