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May 21 2016 @ 11:32
Richard Dunwoody MBE posted an update in the group Horse Racing 7 years, 10 months ago
Hi, as we move into the third week of May this year is certainly flying by and it won’t be long before we are in June with the Epsom Derby and then Royal Ascot to take in. However, before that we’ve another decent weekend ahead with the C4 cameras hot-footing to York, Goodwood and Haydock to take in a staggering nine races across the three venues, while it’s also Guineas weekend over in Ireland at the Curragh
This week the speedsters take centre stage at Haydock with the feature race being the Group Two Temple Stakes – we’ll be taking a more in-depth look at that race below, including giving you all the main trends to look for – plus we’ll also be previewing the Irish 2,000 Guineas – can the recent Newmarket Guineas winner, Galileo Gold, follow-up across the Irish sea?
Right – onto this weekend’s action…………………..
Temple Stakes – Blink and You’ll Miss It!
4.10 – Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f CH413/14 – Trained in the UK
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
11/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Raced within the last 2 months
9/14 – Placed third or better last time out
8/14 – Favourites that were placed
8/14 – Had won a Group race before
7/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Favourites
3/14 – Won their latest race
2/14 – Owned by Qatar Racing (last 2 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 6 or lowerVERDICT: Onto the main race on the day (on the domestic front) and we look set for another ‘crackerjack’ of a spring with two of the last five winners lining-up again. The 2011 champ, Sole Power, is still going strong at the age of 9, but based on some of his recent runs you just feel that he’s on a slight downward curve now. Last year’s winner, Pearl Secret, heads to post again too and he’ll be looking to give his mega-rich owners – Qatar Racing – their third win on the bounce in this race. He was last seen running fourth in the Prix de ’l Abbaye back in October, but last year he came here off the back of a more-recent run. We can expect Take Cover – if he runs as also ran here last night – to make a bold bid from the front and should not be far away, and the Hamdan-owned pair of Muthmir and Waady look big players too – their stable number one jockey, Paul Hanagan, picks Muthmir so that might be a hint. But the one to beat looks to be MECCA’S ANGEL. This talented mare was lightly-raced last season with just three outings, but rounded off her season with an impressive 2 length victory in the Nunthorpe Stakes. She’s won 6 of her last 8 races and is also a past course and distance winner here – you feel this could be a big year for her in the big sprinting races this season
Irish 2,000 Guineas – Galileo To Land Gold Again……………………
5.40 – Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (3yo) 1m
14/14 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
13/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
12/14 – Had won over either 7f or 8f before
11/14 – Had won between 1-4 times before
11/14 – Favourites that finished in the top two
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Had won a Group 1 race before
8/14 – Had run at the Curragh before
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Trained by a UK-based stable
7/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that seasonThe average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1 Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008) & Gleneagles (2015) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1
VERDICT: Another cracking renewal of the Irish 2,000 Guineas. The powerful Aidan O’Brien stable will be looking to land their 8th win in the last 15 years and with 50% of the 8 runners then he’s certainly throwing his normal strong hand at the race. Of his quartet his Newmarket 2,000 Guineas flop Air Force One looks to be his main hope, but certainly has a lot to prove based on that run. He was beaten 15 lengths that day and it’s hard to blame the track as he’d won there in the past. It could be that he just had an off day so is certainly worth forgiving. The trip is a question mark too, but the fact he’s still as short as he is in the betting indicates that he might be showing his old sparkle at home. However, the safe call looks to be to stick with the current 2,000 Guineas champion – GALILEO GOLD – who was an impressive 1 ½ length winner at Newmarket last time out. Connections ruled out a possible tilt at the Derby after that as they don’t think he’ll stay, but this 1m trip looks ideal and he’ll be hoping to follow in the hoof-prints of Rock Of Gibraltar, Cockney Rebel, Henrythenavigator and Gleneagles – who all won this race after taking the Newmarket Guineas earlier that season. Air Vice Marshal looks likely to be the next best of the O’Brien runners and was a fair fourth in the Newmarket Guineas, beaten just 4 lengths, behind the pick and looks the each-way value in the race at around 6/1.
Best Bets – Other Saturday TV Races
Haydock
2.30 – MOSCATO
3.05 – CHIEF WHIP
3.40 – THETISYork
2.40 – MOONRISE LANDING
3.50 – SHORE STEPGoodwood
2.15 – DECORATED HERO
2.50 – MOUNT LOGAN
3.25 – IAN FLEMING