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  1. Profile photo of Mathematician BettingMathematician Betting

    Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) 1m 6f

    Excess Knowledge 4/1 Galileo Rock 5/1 Leading Light 5/1 Foundry 5/1 Libertarian 9/1 Feel Like Dancing 12/1 Eye Of The Storm 14/1 Talent 16/1 Secret Number 16/1 Cap O’Rushes 20/1 Great Hall 20/1 Dabadiyan 25/1 Havana Beat 33/1 Willie The Whipper 40/1 Dashing Star Renew 50/1 London Bridge 66/1 Plinth 50/1 Ralston Road

    * Recent winners had the following career starts
    * 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 8 7 9 6 6 6 3 9 7 6 7 7 5 5 5 3 4
    * Recent winners had the following number of runs that year
    * 3 4 5 5 4 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 7 4 6 3 5 4 2 3 4
    * FOUNDRY only has 2 career runs
    * Thats less than all winners since Snurge in 1990
    * FOUNDRY only has 1 run this season as well
    * Thats not acceptable with no winners having that
    * FOUNDRY also doesn’t have the ideal 12f -12f preps
    * EYE OF THE STORM only has 1 run this year as well
    * He probably won’t run
    * The following horses fail several angles
    * None look good enough or worth elaborating on
    * RALSTON ROAD – LONDON BRIDGE
    * DASHING STAR – WILLIE THE WHIPPER
    * HAVANA BEAT – RENEW – PLINTH
    * FEEL LIKE DANCING doesn’t offer enough
    * He has no form in Group 1-2 races
    * Only 1 of the last 23 winners could say the same
    * He has form over 2m which isn’t what you want
    * His Racing Post Ratings are lower than all past winners
    * GREAT HALL looks the wrong type to me
    * Not keen he ran over 14f last time out
    * No Group form and coming from a handicap as well
    * This is all exposed by his Racing Post Ratings
    * DABADIYAN has just won his last 3 races
    * His big problem is a lack of the required backclass
    * He is unlikely to be good enough
    * LEADING LIGHT is not like any winners
    * He comes from a 2m race which is wrong
    * None of the last 25 winners did that
    * LEADING LIGHT only has Group 3 form
    * We know the vast majority of past winners had more
    * He has the 2nd longest absence of 85 days
    * His last Racing Post Rating was not impressive
    * It was much lower than the last 25 winners had
    * EXCESS KNOWLEDGE comes from a significant stable
    * Main problem with him is just 2 runs this season
    * The last to do that was Snurge back in 1990
    * Snurge’s numbers were significantly better
    * The last 25 winners all had higher Racing Post Ratings
    * His last two runs were over 10f and 12f
    * You really want a 12f and 12f preparation
    * SECRET NUMBER has plenty of positives
    * The right number of overall runs including this year
    * He is well conditioned with a 12f 12f preparation
    * There are 2 factors against him
    * His Racing Post Ratings are a bit on the low side
    * His biggest problem could be stamina
    * His Sire’s stamina index is lower than ideal
    * His Sire (Raven’s Pass) hasn’t bred a winner past 12f yet
    * Purely on Stamina he is one of the least likely to stay
    * Very strong profile otherwise but huge stamina doubts
    * CAP O’ RUSHES would be quite an exposed winner
    * He was a 66/1 Pacemaker in his one run in a Group 1
    * Raises doubts about whether he can win a Grade 1
    * His sire is also unproven with all his 14f runners
    * His last run was below the level required
    * I’d be worried he will be sacrificed again
    * He could be a pacemaker again for Libetarian
    * I could make a very small case for him
    * It would take some imagination though
    * I don’t think he will be good enough
    * TALENT is a filly and not many did well recently
    * Doesn’t worry me as they are fine in this race
    * Especially the Group 1 winners like her
    * I appreciate she was 2nd string when she won the Oaks
    * She is still a Group 1 winner though
    * She has to prove she stays 14f
    * Her Sire has 3 horses in this race trying the same
    * Stamina and a poor last run and her problems

    Shortlist

    * LIBERTARIAN was unraced as a 2yo
    * Many recent winners had the same profile
    * He is absent 77 days longer than all recent winners
    * I can overlook that as it’s only a little longer
    * As far as I can see he has two problems
    * First is a poor last run when well beaten
    * It’s very rare to win this race after a bad run
    * The last 12 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
    * There is also stamina by New Approach
    * The sire hasn’t yet had a winner beyond 12f
    * I suppose there is stamina on the dam’s side
    * He has also upgraded stables as well
    * The distance and his last run do ask questions of him

    * GALILEO ROCK has a very solid profile
    * Sails through all the strongest angles
    * His 77 day absence would be the longest in a long time
    * Only by a week though and I can overlook that
    * You can argue he hasn’t won a Group race yet
    * Placed in the English and Irish Derby trumps that
    * His overall profile is very competent
    * GALILEO ROCK is the best profile
    * He is the most likely winner

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