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Nov 24 2018 @ 12:21
Trainers Quotes posted an update in the group Horse Racing 5 years, 4 months ago
HAYDOCK: A ‘Must-See’ Betfair Chase…………………..
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)
1.50 – Betfair Best Odds On ITV Races Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f ITV
7 previous runnings
6/7 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Irish bred
6/7 – Had won between 1-2 times before
6/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/7 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
5/7 – Had won over at least 2m2f before
5/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
2/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Ridden by a conditional claiming jockey
Limited Reserve won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 7/1TQ VERDICT: Only seven previous runnings but with six of the last seven winners having finished first or second last time out then this is a decent stat to take into the race. Chti Balko, Garo De Juilley & Admiral Barratry, are the only ones the fit the bill. Of that bunch course winner, Chti Balko blew away the cobwebs with a fine second at Ayr on his return run three weeks ago and can go well. He was fourth in the race last year too, but it’s worth pointing out he was beaten around 20 lengths that day and is also rated 9lbs higher this year. ADMIRAL BARRATRY (e/w) was another that was a fair second in his return run (Kempton) and off a pound lower mark has been given a good chance – he’s the first one for the shortlist. The shorter trip here will help as he pulled a bit hard that day too and Lizzie Kelly takes off a handy 3lbs too – he can go well. Of the rest, course winner Ch’Tibello is starting to look well-handicapped off a mark of 147 as he was running in much better races last season. His form tailed off a bit though last season so does need to bounce back – on a plus, the Dan Skelton yard are in decent order. The Paul Nicholls-trained Cliffs Of Dover is another that is sure to be popular, while the top-weight Cyrus Darius is having his first run for the in-form Colin Tizzard yard and can’t be ruled out with form in better races than this last term. Mr Antolini should be fitter for his return run last time and is another to consider based on last season’s form, while Richard Johnson catches the eye riding for the Harry Fry-trained Black Mischief. This 6 year-old was going well in a race won by Jersey Bean last time at Newbury when falling late on and with that form looking solid should be in the mix too and rates the main danger to the selection.
2.25 – Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV
12/13– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
12/13 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
11/13 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/13 – Rated between 132 and 143
8/13 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/13 – French bred
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
2/13 – Trained by Nick Williams
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2TQ VERDICT: It’s hard to get away from the hat-trick seeking FIRST ASSIGNMENT here, who is clearly thriving at present. This Ian Williams-trained 5 year-old has won his last two at Cheltenham in cracking fashion and as long as this race doesn’t come too quickly then he can go well again off just 5lbs higher. It would be foolish to ignore the Gordon Elliott runner – Folsom Blue – that makes the trip over but at the age of 11 he’s overlooked with 12 of the last 13 winners aged between 5 and 7 years-old. Of the rest, we can expect the Paul Nicholls-trained Captain Cattistock to have improved for it’s last run as it was his first off a break. Paisley Park is the clear top-rated in the field and won well at Aintree last time to make him a player but is up 7lbs for that and it might not be easy having to give 12lbs to the improving First Assignment.
3.00 – Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV
13 Previous runnings
11/13 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
11/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
10/13 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (7) bred horse
10/13 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/13 – Won a Grade One chase previously
9/13 – Raced at Haydock previously
9/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Aged 8 or older
7/13 – Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
7/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
6/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
6/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Won their latest race
3/13 – Raced at Aintree last time out
The average winning price in the last 11 runnings is 11/2
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012TQ VERDICT: Only five runners, but what the Betfair Chase field lacks in quantity it certainly makes up for in quality! The jumps race of the campaign so far that sees last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup first and second in Native River and Might Bite do battle again, while the 2016 King George hero – Thistlecrack – is also making his return. Add in the current champ in Bristol De Mai, that destroyed a good field in this race last season – oh, and is also unbeaten (3-from-3) at the track over fences, plus the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux, then it’s a ‘must-see’ race for all jump fans. Nicky Henderson’s Might Bite looks likely to go off favourite and it’s easy to see why – he’ll be looking to give the champion trainer his first success in this race. He’s a class act and despite getting beaten in the Gold Cup he bounced back to land the Betway Bowl at Aintree last time out and looks set for another big season. However, he’s no real value here, especially as he’s actually rated 4lbs inferior to NATIVE RIVER – the horse that beat him 4 ½ lengths in the Gold Cup. If this turns into a slog then the Tizzard-trained Native River could have Might Bite’s measure again – he stays further than this and could easily grind things out from the front with Bristol De Mai. I also suspect that the Henderson team will not want to give Might Bite too hard a race if things develop into a grind or a battle. Plus, it’s hard to ignore the chance of Bristol De Mai – after all, he’s the current champ and he’s yet to lose a race over fences here at Haydock (3 runs) – he simply loves it here! Yes, he will probably need the ground to get a bit softer and he’s also rated 11lbs lower than Native River and 7lbs inferior to Might Bite, but his ‘horses-for-courses’ profile here makes him hard to rule out – if any rain comes his chance will greatly increase. Tizzard also introduces his 2016 King George winner – Thistlecrack – to the track after a troubled time off, but despite having the form to take this I’d rather take a watching brief to see if he retains his old ability. Clan Des Obeaux makes up the five and even though it would be a shock if he’s good enough in a field like this, he’s only 6 years-old so has time on his side and the Nicholls camp have a fantastic record in the race – winning it six times from 13 runnings. On a plus, he’s a course winner and could easily improve for the step up in trip but does have just over 10 lengths to find with Might Bite based on their Aintree runs in the Betway Bowl back in April. All-in-all a fascinating race that is not to be missed. Might Bite is the one to beat, but with Native River having already taken his scalp this year, plus the course specialist – Bristol De Mai – on our side then I’m happy to take on the Henderson horse at the short price.
3.35 – Better Value On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m24y ITV
11/11 – Aged 9 or younger
10/11 – French (4) or Irish (6) bred
9/11 – Carried 11-1 or more
9/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had won 2-3 times over fences before
8/11 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
7/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
4/11 – Carried 11-11 or more in weight
4/11 –Winning distance – head or shorter
4/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
Chase The Spud won the race in 2017TQ VERDICT: A course winner that can go well too is CAPTAIN REDBEARD (e/w). This 9 year-old is another that ticks a lot of the main trends and should be a lot fitter for his return run, when third at Carlisle three weeks ago. His form at the track reads an impressive 3-1-2-1-2 so looks sure to be in the mix. It’s hard to ignore those track stats so this Stuart Coltherd runner gets the thumbs-up. Of the rest, Takingrisks was a good winner last time out at Ayr and can’t be ruled out, while the Paul Nicholls-trained Braqueur D’Or won easily at Taunton recently so heads here full of confidence too and looks an improving staying chaser. The consistent Vintage Clouds can go well too but this Sue Smith-trained runner just doesn’t win enough for me and looks booked for one of the places once again. Buywise and the normally prominent Delusionofgrandeur make up the six runners.
Ascot: Three Live Races From The Royal Track………
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)
2.05 – Christy 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV
14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
12/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
10/15 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
10/15 – Ran at Aintree (3) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
9/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
8/15 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
6/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Aged 5 years-old
3/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/15 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Top Notch won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at WindsorTQ VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls-trained POLITOLOGUE bypassed the Betfair Chase to run over this shorter trip and in this slightly easier grade and looks the one to beat. He had a big season last term, with his neck beating of Min in the Melling Chase at Aintree the highlight. He’s also won first time out for the last two seasons and is a course and distance winner at the track – he’s got a lot going for him and at the age of 7 should have more improvement to come. Charbel is a classy sort on his day too and rates a live threat, especially after beating Baron Alco last time out – that form has since been franked with the second landing the BetVictor Gold Cup. The Moore camp, who train Baron Alco, have a line on that form with their 6 year-old Benatar entered. He was pulled out at Cheltenham last Saturday but was well-fancied that day and a recent spin at Newton Abbot, when he pulled too hard, should have blown away the cobwebs. He is rated 19lbs lower to the selection though so despite getting 3lbs does still have a bit to find. Gold Present and Hammersly Lake are others to note, but in a race the Paul Nicholls yard have won six times in the last 15 years then Politologue is the call.
2.40 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV
16/16 – Priced 7/2 or less
14/16 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
14/16 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
13/16 – Won by and Irish (10) or French (3) bred horse
12/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Won their latest race
10/16 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
10/16 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
10/16 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
9/16 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
9/16 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
6/16 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
5/16 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both in 2014-15)
5/16 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
4/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/16 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 12 winners were Irish-trained
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4
Lil Rockerfeller won the race in 2017
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at WindsorTQ VERDICT: The Harry Fry IF THE CAP FITS was a fair second at Wincanton on his return run and only just ran out of steam in the closing stages. He’s a strong-travelling sort and the extra distance should also be more in his favour – the form of that run has since been upheld by Verdana Blue, who ran well in the Greatwood Hurdle with plenty of weight and gets the call, especially getting a bit of weight. Another horse that can be expected to have improved for it’s return run is the Nicky Henderson-trained We Have A Dream. This 4 year-old was third at Aintree last time out but was bang-there until the closing stages and should be a lot fitter this time and can go well with Geraghty coming in for the ride. In what looks a bit of a shootout between the two already mentioned I just feel the Fry horse might just have a bit more scope for improvement – we’ll see. The consistent and versatile Old Guard is another to note after running a solid third in the Greatwood Hurdle last time out and should not be far away, while we can expect Rayvin Black to make the running but will probably get outclassed in the second half of the race.
3.15 – Gerard Bertrand Hurst Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV
11/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
11/12 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
9/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
8/12 – Rated 142 or higher
7/12 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/12 – Ran at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Ascot before
6/12 – Placed favourites
4/12 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Aged 6 years-old
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Trained by Gary MooreTQ VERDICT: An open race. We can expect the front-running Speredek to make this a test from the front but in the process, he might just set the race up for something else. The Henderson-trained Theinval ticks a lot of boxes and looks set to have another decent season ahead. However, he’s a horse that has often needed his first run back, so he’s overlooked here. Duke Of Navan can go well in this grade but at the age of 11 he’s not getting any younger, while 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9 years-old. Gardefort would be interesting if tuned-up for this return, while the generally consistent Caid du Lin gets in with a fair weight that would make him dangerous. However, this is a race the Paul Nicholls team have targeted with a degree of success in recent years – winning two of the last 12 and having 4 placed horses during that time too. The McManus-owned Modus will be one of his that will be popular with Geraghty riding and he’s closely linked in with Duke Of Navan after beating that horse a head last time out at Cheltenham. He’s won 4 of his 7 chase starts too and rate a big player. But he’s raced twice over hurdles here at Ascot and been beaten both times so that’s a small concern. Nicholls also has SAN BENEDETO (e/w) though and he looks the more interesting. A course and distance winner that was a fair third in the Haldon Gold Cup last time at Exeter and should be spot-on now after two runs this season. Bryony Frost also gets on well with the horse and gets the leg-up. Ozzie The Oscar is another that will be popular and is yet to finish out of the first three from six runs over fences (3 wins). He was second in the Haldon Gold Cup so closely-matched with San Benedeto but with 11-12 to carry here things won’t be easy for this Philip Hobbs runner.
That’s Your Lot For Now