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Sep 07 2018 @ 13:14
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 5 years, 7 months ago
I thought I would pinch an extract from
Guy’s much longer full member message
of earlier today for you on the free newsletter.See below where he is taking an early look
at the Super Cup Stakes at Haydock on Saturday.The DIY’ers amongst you should be able to
add in later data not available when he wrote this earlier.
ie final declarations, the going and the draw.[ A quick rule of thumb for Haydock 6f would be
that lower draws are generally disadvantaged.
High or at least middle tends to do better ]Watch the winner romp home from stall 1 after
me stating that 🙂Of course if instead of spending time to do your own
research for Saturday you would prefer someone else
to spend many hrs doing it for you feel free to
book in for our Saturday DayPass for a cheap price.
Guy will be looking further at this race and several others
in his Saturday message.See below for the link.
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Saturday Haydock 4.15
Sprint Cup Stakes update
11/8 Harry Angel 8/1 Sir Dancealot
8/1 James Garfield 8/1 The Tin Man 12/1 Brando
12/1 Tasleet 14/1 Limato 14/1 Eqtidaar
20/1 Speak In Colours 20/1 Sands Of Mali
33/1 Gustav Klimt 33/1 Sioux Nation
331 Donjuan Triumphant 33/1 Fleet Review
66/1 Spirit Of Valor 100/1 Intelligence Cross
100/1 Hey JonesyGroup 1
6 furlongs17 left in the race
Final Declarations out todayHARRY ANGEL is the best horse
But as I explained a few days ago
I see vulnerability in his profileHe has 77 days off after his injury
Thats longer than all bar 1 winner
77 days off is certainly not a positiveGroup 1 races
Run over 5f 6f 7f
Since 2003
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 63 days
Returned a 0-83 record
HARRY ANGEL shares this profileHARRY ANGEL is also a 4 year old
That is the worst age to be in this race
Horses aged 4
Have a 1-51 record since 2005
Have a 0-39 record since 2009
Maybe lack strength of older horses
Lack the improvement of 3 year oldsThe other 4 year olds
Intelligence Cross and Spirit Of ValorSIR DANCELOT is a 4yo
Coming from 7f not a safe profile
Wouldn’t rule him out as he’s improving
But the ground could be softer than ideal
And the 4yo record has not been goodTASLEET has 1 run this season
None of the last 20 winners had that
With over 3 months off not for meSome of the outsiders may not run
GUSTAV KLIMT is unlikely to run at 6f
SANDS OF MALI has 2 poor runs in a row
SIOUX NATION is not progressingSPEAK IN COLOUR is lightly raced
More tha half the field are rated higherEQTIDAAR – Not rule out yet
Don’t mind his profile much
But his last run was below form
Been no ante post confidence in himBRANDO – Not ruled out
Flopped in this race last year
No ante post confidence in him
Among reasons to be wary
But he has the ability to winLIMATO – Back to form last time
Problem with him is softer ground
You would think he wants it fasterJAMES GARFIELD was supplemented
He is a 3yo with 12 career starts now
There were 9 winners of this aged 3
They had 6 8 4 7 7 8 10 7 11 runsHe is more exposed than all of them
He was 2nd in France last time out
In the Prix Maurice de Gheest
JAMES GARFIELD was 2nd
THE TIN MAN was 3rdWorth bearing in mind
James Garfield was a 42/1 chance
The Tin Man was only 10/1 to winTHE TIN MAN is very interesting
I opposed him in that French race
He failed an age/absence statistic
He was also badly drawnI opposed him at Royal Ascot
As a 6yo with just 1 run that season
I opposed him in this race last year
The Ground was heavy last year
There was a breeding stats against himEquiano runners in Group races
Ground softer than good
Have a 0-24 record at any distanceIf the ground is soft
Then THE TIN MAN is in trouble
But it is only good ground nowIf the ground is good or faster
He would certainly be my preferenceThis is a Haydock however
So we believe nothing we are told
We have to wait for the draw
Wait for how many are declared
But also for the weather and rain
The ground and Draw
Will have a bearing on any selectionReminder of Our Cheap Saturday Service
Just the usual memory jog about Saturdays message to you
for a one off £3. You need to book in before 10am Saturday
morning and message send time will be about 10.30 am Saturday.Book In Now To Receive Saturday’s Racing Analysis
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass?aid=betfinder_special
Cheap and non committal one day only option available.Best Wishes
Mick
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