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Jan 23 2018 @ 15:46
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 6 years, 2 months ago
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Ante Post Statistics
February 10th
Betfair Hurdle
The last 11 winners were aged 5-6
Horses aged 7 + have struggled
Since 2005 they have a 0-88 recordHorses aged 5 have won 6 recent races
They have 8 14 6 22 18 11 career starts
No horses aged 5 years old
Have won with under 6 lifetime starts
Horses aged 5 that won recently
Have 4 10 3 3 10 4 previous hurdle startsHorses aged 6 have won 5 recent races
They have 9 9 6 13 31 career starts
They have 3 6 3 12 8 hurdle runsRecent winners had the following career runs
9 8 14 9 6 6 22 13
7 of the last 8 winners had 6-14 career runs
5 of the last 6 winners had 6-7-8-9 runs
Horses with over 15 hurdle runs are weakRecent winners had these hurdle runs
3 4 10 6 3 3 3 12
No horse won with under 3 hurdle runs
Horses with 3-6 hurdle runs score well
More than 10 or more than 12 is a worryPast winners had these runs that season
3 4 5 6 3 0 5 2 3 6
We had a seasonal debutant win (Zarakanda)
History shows he was well handicapped
Every other winner had 2 + runs that season
I’d avoid any horse with 0-1 runs this seasonRecent form seems very important
2017 winners last 3 runs were 2 3 2
2016 winners last 3 runs were 2 1 3
2015 winners last 3 runs were 3 2 2
2014 winners last 3 runs were 1 3 3
2013 winners last 3 runs were 1 2 1
2012 winners last 3 runs were 1 1 1
2011 winners last 3 runs were 2 1 1
No horse in the last 7 seasons
Finished 4th or worse
In any of the previous 3 racesHorses coming from a Handicap Hurdle
Have not won this race since 2010
Horses doing this since 2011 are 0-88
Horses from Class 2 Handicap Hurdles
Have not won since 2007 in a 1-61 recordPrevious Flat form is a clue
Past winners had the following flat runs
0 0 4 0 0 3 18 0
Most winners had no flat form
I don’t include French runs here
The more runs on the flat a horse has
The less likely they are to win this raceWeight is a big issue
Horses with 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-41 record since 2007Horses that won last time out
Have won 4 recent races
Those running within 4 weeks 0-20 since 2003
Those with 4 + hurdle runs 0-42 since 2003****************************************************