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Jan 11 2018 @ 17:49
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 6 years, 3 months ago
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Cheltenham (March 14th)
RSA Chase
Monalee (7) Presenting Percy (7)
Yanworth (10) Dinaria Des Obeaux (16) Finians Oscar (16)
Black Corton (20) Invitation Only (20) Mias Storm (20)
Sutton Place (25) Fountains Windfall (22) Barney Dawn (25)Just looking at the leading contenders
Recent winners had these Chase starts
5 5 2 3 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
BLACK CORTON already has 10
He looks too exposed to win a RSA
He is also on the small side as wellBARNEY DWAN only has 2 Chase runs
He could come out and win again
But he makes no appeal at this stage
Not from a small yard
No with no Grade 1-2 formFOUNTAINS WINDFALL has 3 Chase runs
But He Fell in his last 2 runs
Even if he comes out again and wins
I would not touch him in this race
His Breeding stats are not good enough
His sire’s never had a Chase winner
That was above Class 3 grade beforeYANWORTH is far too risky to trust
His sire was quirky and so is he as well
I doubt he can stay 3 miles here
Said to be going straight to the festival
That will mean he has a 72 day absence
Go Back to the 1989 renewal
Every winner bar Don Poli (72 days)
Won absent no more than 53 days
YANWORTH has no chance of being my betFINIANS OSCAR has the numbers
But maybe not the constitution to win
Have doubts about his jumping
The big field could hurt him as wellMIA’S STORM is a mare
SHATTERED LOVE is a mareCheltenham Festival since 2007
Mares running in Chases
Return a 0-59 record
Mares running over 2m 1f and more
Return a 0-114 record
I’d need a special mare to overlook that
Neither of these look that right nowDINARIA DES OBEAUX is another mare
She is In the betting but not yet entered
Her numbers are not good enough anywaySUTTON PLACE is opposable
He has raced just once this season
Even if he comes out and runs again
He will still only have 2 runs this year
17 of the last 18 winners
Had at least 3 runs that seasonPossibles
INVITATION ONLY has 2 runs this year
Fell at the 5th on his debut
So really only had just 1.5 runs this year
If he runs and wins again
That has to be borne in mindMONALEE fell at the 10th last time
That is a worry on his 2nd run
Even if he comes out and wins a race
He will have 2 Chase runs and 10 fences
That may not be enough
It would leave him short of recent runs
He too has other festival optionsPRESENTING PERCY looks a big runner
His Racing Post Rating last time
When winning at Fairyhouse over 3m 5f
Was the highest Racing Post Chase rating
Any horse has done this year over 3m 3f +
There are things to consider though
He may well run in the 4 mile race
He will need another run to be safe
As without one he has 101 days off