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Jan 06 2018 @ 17:02
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 6 years, 3 months ago
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Staying with Cheltenham 2018 again
Done the Supreme Novice
Done the Arkle
Third race in the series
The Champion HurdleChampion Hurdle 2018
Buveur Dair (4/6) Faugheen (6) Melon (8), Yorkhill (10) My Tent Or Yours (16) Defi Du Seuil (20)
We know where we stand here
Confidently with BUVEUR D’AIR
October 4th Advised each way 4/1
October 15th Advided a top up 4/1
November 22nd Advised 5/1 e/w (Hills)BUVEUR D’AIR won both runs this year
Faugheen has come out and flopped
And now we find ourselves odds onBUVEUR D’AIR has to run below form
If anything else has a chance of winning
Just looking at the main dangersFAUGHEEN is a 10 year old
Sea Pigeon did it 1980-1981
Hattons Grace did it 1951-1952
No others have done it aged 10 +
I’ve been against him from the start
Not convinced he will even take part
I will be very surprised if he win thisMY TENT OR YOURS is 11 years old
He’s only raced once so far this year
Even if he runs again I can’t have himYORKHILL is consistently discussed
Must be the most over-hyped horse around
In the unlikely event he runs in this race
I wouldn’t be afraid of him
If you look at his hurdle numbers
He needs a lot of improvement
Hasn’t jumped a hurdle since April 2016DEFI DU SEUIL is only a 5yo
He’s had just 1 poor run this season
I could not have and 5 year old
Without a lot more recent runsMELON is the main danger
He would he the horse to consider
As a possible saver or novelty markets
Statistically he is not a perfect fit
Go back to the 1989 Champion Hurdle
9 horses aged 6 have won this race
They had the following career starts
11 14 16 28 21 27 22 23 16
They all had 11 or more career starts
MELON only has 9 career starts
If you look at Racing Post Ratings
MELON has a career best 160 last time
Look at the Ratings of Past winners
170 162 170 171 173 171 171 172MELON only needs 12lbs improvement
Lightly raced trained by a Genius
Having Placed in a Supreme Novice
He could easily run a very big race
MELON is the only horse I fear here
I will be making sure before the race
That I will won’t mind if he does win it
And that could be without the favouriteMELON is the danger
BUVEUR D’AIR the likely winner