[Mathematician]

Saturday, Newmarket 3.50

Cesarewitch

(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 2m2f

I can’t see me giving the race too much time with so many runners. The Stats are there to have a play with if you want to bother looking for a bet in the race. I quickly applied these stats and didn’t attempt to interpret anything. Two horses passed all my angles both looking rather obvious.

DOMINATION 7/1 – LIEUTENANT MILLER 10/1

* The Cesarewitch is a Handicap over 2m 2f
* I have looked at every renewal since 1990
* I describe Exposed horses as those with 21 + runs
* Exposed horses won 8 of the last 23 renewals
* Those that had 8 or more runs that season were 1-113
* Horses aged 4 or 5 with 21 + career runs were 0-98
* Exposed horses losing 10 lengths last time were 0-109
* Exposed horses that had a penalty were 0-16
* Exposed horses from 14f or shorter are 1-85 record
* No exposed horse had just 1 run this season

* 3 year olds have a 3-65 record
* You want a certain type of 3yo ideally with 9-12 starts
* Those with less (0-25) or more (0-121) have yet to win
* 3 year olds with under 3 career wins (0-32) struggle
* All 3 year old winners were 1-2-3 last time

* Four year olds havent scored well with a 4-230 record
* 4yo’s with 14 + runs on the Flat had a 1-135 record
* All 4yo winners had under 6 runs that year (Others 0-131)
* Most 4 year olds had form in either Class 2 or Listed Class
* The only exception was the 2011 winner
* 4 year old Fillies were 0-34
* 4 Year olds that lost by 10 lengths last time were 0-61
* No 4 year old came from 13f or less
* Horses aged 4 that had under 3 wins on the flat are 0-92
* No winning 4 year old had previous Group class form
* Horses aged 4 all had at least 4 runs this season

* Only 1 Filly has won since 1989 in a 1-86 record
* All 67 females aged 3-4-5 lost
* All 31 that didnt run within a month lost
* All 38 females coming from 15f or less lost

* Horses that had ran in Group Class before are fine
* Horses from a Group Class race won 2 races
* Both horses came from the Group 2 Doncaster Cup

* Horses with 7 + weeks absence won 7 of the last 23
* They were best when lighter raced
* Those with under 12 career runs were 5-61
* Those with 13 + career runs had a 2-115 record
* Both winners were aged 7 or older
* 3 winners were absent 10 weeks or more
* Those with 13 + runs doing that were 0-60

* Horses beaten 10 lengths + last time out are 1-234
* Your horse should be 1-2-3-4-5-6 on its latest run
* Horses failing that had a 2-263 record
* Those that had 13+ starts doing that were 0-189

* Horses that ran at 13 furlongs or less last time are 1-107
* All 66 horses that ran over 12f or less last time lost
* Horses that have penalties are 2-70
* Horses with Less than 2 career wins are 0-96