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Cesarewitch stats

This topic contains 0 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by Profile photo of Mathematician Betting Mathematician Betting 4 years, 1 month ago.

Cesarewitch stats

  • Profile photo of Mathematician Betting

    Saturday, Newmarket 3.50

    Cesarewitch

    (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 2m2f

    I can’t see me giving the race too much time with so many runners. The Stats are there to have a play with if you want to bother looking for a bet in the race. I quickly applied these stats and didn’t attempt to interpret anything. Two horses passed all my angles both looking rather obvious.

    DOMINATION 7/1 – LIEUTENANT MILLER 10/1

    * The Cesarewitch is a Handicap over 2m 2f
    * I have looked at every renewal since 1990
    * I describe Exposed horses as those with 21 + runs
    * Exposed horses won 8 of the last 23 renewals
    * Those that had 8 or more runs that season were 1-113
    * Horses aged 4 or 5 with 21 + career runs were 0-98
    * Exposed horses losing 10 lengths last time were 0-109
    * Exposed horses that had a penalty were 0-16
    * Exposed horses from 14f or shorter are 1-85 record
    * No exposed horse had just 1 run this season

    * 3 year olds have a 3-65 record
    * You want a certain type of 3yo ideally with 9-12 starts
    * Those with less (0-25) or more (0-121) have yet to win
    * 3 year olds with under 3 career wins (0-32) struggle
    * All 3 year old winners were 1-2-3 last time

    * Four year olds havent scored well with a 4-230 record
    * 4yo’s with 14 + runs on the Flat had a 1-135 record
    * All 4yo winners had under 6 runs that year (Others 0-131)
    * Most 4 year olds had form in either Class 2 or Listed Class
    * The only exception was the 2011 winner
    * 4 year old Fillies were 0-34
    * 4 Year olds that lost by 10 lengths last time were 0-61
    * No 4 year old came from 13f or less
    * Horses aged 4 that had under 3 wins on the flat are 0-92
    * No winning 4 year old had previous Group class form
    * Horses aged 4 all had at least 4 runs this season

    * Only 1 Filly has won since 1989 in a 1-86 record
    * All 67 females aged 3-4-5 lost
    * All 31 that didnt run within a month lost
    * All 38 females coming from 15f or less lost

    * Horses that had ran in Group Class before are fine
    * Horses from a Group Class race won 2 races
    * Both horses came from the Group 2 Doncaster Cup

    * Horses with 7 + weeks absence won 7 of the last 23
    * They were best when lighter raced
    * Those with under 12 career runs were 5-61
    * Those with 13 + career runs had a 2-115 record
    * Both winners were aged 7 or older
    * 3 winners were absent 10 weeks or more
    * Those with 13 + runs doing that were 0-60

    * Horses beaten 10 lengths + last time out are 1-234
    * Your horse should be 1-2-3-4-5-6 on its latest run
    * Horses failing that had a 2-263 record
    * Those that had 13+ starts doing that were 0-189

    * Horses that ran at 13 furlongs or less last time are 1-107
    * All 66 horses that ran over 12f or less last time lost
    * Horses that have penalties are 2-70
    * Horses with Less than 2 career wins are 0-96

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