Betting Preview – Formula One Brazil Grand Prix

[Roy The Boy]

From Slumber to Sensation? A week in F1

I should think F1 circuit designer Hermann Tilke is having sleepless nights. He sold the Land of the Free and Home of Lawsuit an F1Grand Prix Circuit but delivered them an annual coma inducing spectacle of cars strung out like washing on a line.

From the moment it was turned into a display of military might, that was when men in uniforms with guns flanked the singer of the national anthem, TV’s were turned off. Adding military idealism to a sporting event is the finest way to alienate an audience.

For me the channel hopping started around lap four. Three clicks down and ‘Monster Jam’ caught my attention. These big trucks may attract an audience of the Jeremy Kyle mind-set but there is no doubting their numbers, there were 40,000 in this particular sold-out stadium.

With the live F1 timing looking like an ‘Arrivals’ notice board at Kings Cross railway station bored fingers tapped Monster Jam into Google which showed there are no less than 45 such Monster Truck stadium-packing events planned for January alone. Most are two-day shows, some feature three performances.

Given those mind blowing figures, and the boreathon that F1 has served-up for the American’s, I’d testify Uncle Bernie’s company is not undervalued because the richest country in the world is not going to spend a single cent more on Formula 1 than it already has. Emerging market it is not.

It’s Brazil this weekend which means there will be no guns on display. They will be tucked away in the pockets of the fans who are fenced in the grandstand like something last seen at a mid-80’s Millwall vs West Ham football match.

I’ve had a season-long theory that, at this final hurrah of the year, King Sebastian will fall on his sword in a selfless display of chivalry to send his teammate into retirement as a winner.

Many suspect that’s what he did here in 2011 when forfeiting the lead but maintaining an eleven second gap back to third-placed Jenson Button. It was supposed gearbox problems that gave Webber his only win of the season. If only Maldonado was in the team, he could have clarified if those suspicions were fiction or, indeed, fact.

There are two small problems however: A) Webber displayed in Texas that he is no good thing to be in second place at any stage of the race, meaning inheriting the race win could be difficult. B) My understanding is there’s no love for Webber left in the Red Bull team and if he had ‘done a Kimmi’ mid-season tears would not have been shed.

Rarely in life do my head and heart agree, in my case they are not even talking. So, while one says the proven policy of simply following an in-form car/driver package is the best way of finally showing a profit this season, my heart says there’s going to be carnage, cars pirouetting off a wet circuit like contestants in Dancing On Ice and a car other than a Lotus, Merc, Red Bull or Ferrari doing the unthinkable – finishing on the podium.

Using the all-important gambler’s dictum that if you back an outcome at a bigger price than its true probability, you will ultimately come out in front. Here’s a pile of long-shots which might just turn a profit this weekend. Let’s hope they do as they, for the most part, will require more action than a century of Texan GP’s could possibly deliver.

Under 18 race finishers. 11/4
Last season there were five non-finishers in this race; in 2011 there were four non-finishers with an additional five cars encountering problems resulting in them being lapped twice. 2009 saw another six cars retire from the race.

Max Chilton NOT to be classified. 3/1
All good things must come to an end. Anyone have any idea what’s he’s like in the wet? …apart from slow.

Rosberg to qualify in the top-two. 5/2
In the last seven Grand Prix it has been an all Red Bull front row with the exception of Korea (where Hamilton claimed second), India and Singapore where Rosberg qualified second.

Romain Grosjean to win the race. 14/1
Not knocking on the door, more like beating on it with a sledge-hammer. Admittedly he’s not won a Grand Prix but he got closer than ever last time and four podiums from his last five starts mean he is over-priced.

Felipe Massa to be the first retirement. 25/1
Guaranteed to be in the mid-pack at the start (and probably all stages of the race), could over-try before his own crowd on his final Ferrari start.

Jean-Eric Vergne to reach Q3. 7/1
Qualified in tenth in Italy and Monaco, seventh in Canada. A three from 18 success rate means he is not a 7/1 shot.

Mercedes to be the highest scoring team. 9/1
Webber ballses up, Massa crashes out, Kovalainen presses some wrong buttons on an unfamiliar steering wheel and we get paid.

————————————————————————-

This Week’s Selections:

Romain Grosjean to finish on the podium. 70.5 points at even-money

Current profit/loss: -70.50 points

Twitter: @RoyTheBoyF1

[My Tipsters]

Compare betting odds on the Brazilian Grand Prix here

http://odds.betfinder.co.uk/motor-sport/formula-1/