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Mar 22 2019 @ 12:05
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 5 years, 1 month ago
Aintree Grand National
Making progress on this race
The favourite is a big problemTIGER ROLL 5/1
Whilst Betfair was suspended
More money came yesterday
He was backed with all firms
He can be still be backed 5/1
But he is as short as 7/2 – 4/1He is a spanner in the works
He won the National last year
Won at Cheltenham this year
Obviously ridiculously versatileThe general view of his chance
Seems to be that he is bad value
But by far the most likely winner
And easy to imagine him winningI am in that camp as well
Despite him failing 1 major angle
So he’s getting special treatment
And carried forward to a shortlist
We could save on him if wanted
But that’s a decision for later onAintree Grand National
5/1 Tiger Roll 12/1 Anibale Fly 12/1 Rathvinden
14/1 Vintage Clouds 20/1 Mall Dini 20/1 Lake View Lad
25/1 Bristol de Mai 25/1 Rock The Kasbah 33/1 Valtor
33/1 Walk In The Mill 33/1 Pairofbrowneyes
33/1 Up For Review 33/1 Ms Parfois 33/1 Ramses de Teillee
33/1 Step Back 33/1 One For Arthur 33/1 Pleasant Company
33/1 Dounikos 40/1 General Principle 40/1 Go Conquer
40/1 Alpha des Obeaux 40/1 Abolitionist 40/1 Noble Endeavor
40/1 Jury Duty 40/1 Warriors Tale 40/1 Minella Rocco
50/1 Sub Lieutenant 50/1 Yala Enki 50/1 Mala Beach 50/1 Blaklion
50/1 Captain Redbeard 50/1 The Young Master 50/1 Outlander
50/1 Folsom Blue 50/1 The Storyteller 50/1 Singlefarmpayment
50/1 Blow By Blow 50/1 Livelovelaugh 50/1 Vieux Lion Rouge
50/1 Sandymount Duke 50/1 Daklondike 50/1 Tea For Two
50/1 Magic of Light 50/1 Regal Encore 50/1 Van Gogh du Granit
50/1 Looking Well 50/1 Call It Magic 50/1 Ned Stark 50/1 Rathlin Rose
50/1 Mr Diablo 50/1 Carole’s Destrier 50/1 Milansbar 50/1 Borice
50/1 Ziga Boy 50/1 Baie des Iles 50/1 Shattered Love 50/1 Red Infantry
50/1 Cogry 50/1 Shantou Village 50/1 Joe Farrell 50/1 Out Sam
50/1 Ballyoptic 66/1 Bless The Wings 66/1 Just A Par 66/1 Don Poli
66/1 Polidam 66/1 Valseur Lido 66/1 Ultragold 66/1 A Toi Phil
66/1 Monbeg Notorious 66/1 Woods Well 66/1 Kilcrea Vale
66/1 Highland Lodge 66/1 Morney Wing 66/1 Potters Corner
66/1 Kingswell Theatre 66/1 Impulsive Star 66/1 Vieux Morvan
66/1 Splash of Ginge 66/1 Measureofmydreams 66/1 Exitas
66/1 Isleofhopendreams 66/1 Fact of The Matter 100/1 Scoir Mear17 Days to go
81 Horses in the raceIf you look at the last 3 renewals
No horses rated 141 or lower
Have actually got into this raceHorses rated 140 or less
Must be very unlikely runners
So I am eliminating all of them
We can always add them laterThe last time we looked at this
Eliminated a lot of sub groupsHorses Aged 7
33/1 Ramses de Teillee
50/1 DaklondikeHorses Aged 12 +
66/1 Bless The Wings
66/1 Just A Par
66/1 Isleofhopendreams
50/1 Folsom BlueThe previous 23 National winners
Had the following runs that season3 5 4 8 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7
They all had 3 + races that season
I won’t accept any horses with less
The following horses fail this angle12/1 Rathvinden
33/1 Pleasant Company
33/1 One For Arthur
33/1 Step Back
33/1 Ms Parfois
40/1 Total Recall
40/1 Noble Endeavor
50/1 Mala Beach
50/1 Regal Encore
50/1 Joe FarrellNo horse with over 12 Chase runs
Has won the Aintree Grand National
Having had under 4 runs that year
Well over 100 have tried and failedTIGER ROLL fails this statistic
Having had 19 chase runs already
And only 3 races this season
But he gets special dispensationThe other horses do not
They are too exposed statistically
To expect to win with 3 runs this year
The Following horses fail this angleBRISTOL DE MAI 25/1 fails this angle
He has completed just 2 runs this year
Not for me as he also has topweightANIBALE FLY also fails this statistic
He has 15 Chase runs and 3 this year
He was a good 4th in this race last year
Comes here again from the Gold Cup
But he had 5 prep runs before 2018
This year only has 3 previous races
And is racing off a 5lbs higher ratingMALL DINI also fails this statistic
With only 14 previous chase races
I could turn a blind eye to his profile
But he comes from a 2m 1f race
This is a huge 2m step up in distanceVINTAGE CLOUDS has this problem
16 Chase runs and just 3 this year
One of which he failed to complete
He is not the biggest of horses
He has raced just once in 100 days
Tough and full of heart but not for meOther horses failing this statistic
DON POLI
GO CONQUER
BLAKLION
MINELLA ROCCO
PAIROFBROWNEYES
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
ABOLITIONISTOther Underraced horses
BALLYOPTIC has 3 runs this year
But has only completed in 2 of them
VIEUX LION ROUGE is underraced
Completeing just 1 run this season
SANDYMOUNT DUKE
THE YOUNG MASTERDoubtful Stayers
LIVELOVELAUGH
SHANTOU VILLAGE
THE STORYTELLER
ULTRAGOLD
BLOW BY BLOW
OUTLANDER
A TOI PHILOther Negatives
Recent winners of the Grand National
Had the following Chase runs
16 10 13 10 14 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11UP FOR REVIEW has 7 chase runs
He’s raced just twice in 11 months
LIVELOVELAUGH has 7 chase runs
Looks underraced + short of stamina
RED INFANTRY won’t have the class
EXITAS is not good enough
YALA ENKI isn’t going to win
VALTOR has weight/absence isues
TEA FOR TWO surely not capable
SHATTERED LOVE may not run
This may come too soon for her
SUB LIEUTENANT offers little
MAGIC OF LIGHT hard to see why
WARRIORS TALE lacks the classLast 28 renewals
Winners absence31 84 34 29 23 35 58 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28
20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25All 28 winners ran within 84 days
27 of the 28 winners ran within 58 days
ROCK THE KASBAH has 113 days offLack Positives + Class
VALSEUR LIDO
BAIE DES ILES
POLIDAMWALK IN THE MILL didn’t appeal
Won the Becher Chase off a featherweight
Question his class and his stamina
And his last 3 runs are over hurdlesJURY DUTY is an 8yo
With 11 Chase runs ticks boxes
But he has several flaws too
Flat bred and may not stay this far
He has raced once in 168 days
Can not see him selecting himCurrent Shortlist
5/1 Tiger Roll
20/1 Lake View Lad
33/1 Dounikos
40/1 General Principle
40/1 Alpha des Obeaux
50/1 Captain Redbeard
66/1 Monbeg Notorious