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Dec 19 2018 @ 19:39
Mathematician posted an update in the group Football 5 years, 3 months ago
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Friday – Ante Post
Ascot 1.55
Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle
7/4 Angels Breath 11/4 Thomas Darby
13/2 Encore Champs 8/1 Danny Kirwan 8/1 Seddon
11/1 Mister Fisher 10/1 Danny Kirwan 12/1 Grand Sancy
14/1 Thistle Do Nicely 14/1 Eclair Dainay
16/1 Champagne Court 16/1 Dashel Drasher
20/1 Garbanzo 33/1 Sunday At AugustaThis is a Graded Novice Hurdle
Used to be the The Kennel GateANGELS BREATH is 7/4 favourite
He is trying to win a Graded Novice
Without having raced under rulesHe is a very highly regarded horse
And Nicky Henderson is a genius
But this race is still a Graded Hurdle
Ascot is very stiff and it’s soft ground
It will take some doing to win on debut
There should be some each way valuePast winners of this race
Had the following lifetime starts
6 4 6 7 8 5 5 5 10 36 12 8 1 15The only winner with under 3 career starts
Was Kopeck and he was way back in 2002
Every winner since had more experience
ANGELS BREATH with zero runs is unsafeRecent winners career runs 6 4 6 7 8 3 5 5 10
Recent winners hurdle runs 1 2 2 7 2 1 5 5 4 4The last 9 winners had 3-10 career starts
The last 9 winners had 1-7 hurdle starts
Similar types do seem to win this raceThe following horses have under 3 runs
And are not matchable to any past winnerECLAIR DAINAY – 2 career runs
SUNDAY AT AUGUSTA – 2 career runs
CHAMPAGNE COURT – 1 career runDASHEL DRASHER didn’t appeal
Not sired by Passing Glance
The sires hurdlers in Listed/Graded races
Are 0-25 when it is softer than good
GARBANZO has never ran over hurdlesGRAND SANCY wasn’t safe enough
With 10 runs he has more than ideal
More than any of the previous 8 winners
More than any previous 4yo winner
He is the only horse with a penaltyI think one of these might win
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
134 Thistle Do Nicely
131 Thomas Darby
130 Seddon
129 Thomas Darby
129 Encore Champs
127 Seddon
123 Danny Kirwan
121 Mister Fisher
120 Thistle Do NicelySeveral of these wont run
Several have alternative entries
The last 9 renewals of this race
Had no more than 8 runners itThis race should cut up
Would be nice to get 3 places
And an each way bet against the favThe problem we have now
We can not know who will runTHOMAS DARBY is said to be running
He has been the Ante Post Gamble
He should have won last time out
Finished 2nd at Ascot when favourite
The race was slowly run in a sprint finish
It was a farcical pace in the early stagesLadbrokes and Corals are 5/2
Most other firms are 2/1-9/4
THOMAS DARBY at 5/2 each way
May not sound very exciting right nowBut come the day
The field should cut up
There could easily be under 8 runners
I think he will probably start favourite
Rather than the unraced Angels BreathTHOMAS DARBY 5/2
Each Way
Looks the right bet right now
But will only suit some of you
And l can’t be sure what runs
Constant headache for this column