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Sep 14 2018 @ 18:36
Moderator posted an update in the group Horse Racing 5 years, 6 months ago
St Leger Stakes preview (plus free tip)
CD Racing has produced some very insightful and well-written previews in the past. This one is no different. Here is what CD Racing thinks could happen in the St Leger Stakes at Doncaster tomorrow…
The St Leger is the final classic of the British flat season. Run over 1 mile 6 and a half furlongs, it’s a real stamina test for 3-year-olds. There has been the odd upset over the years, such as Harbour Law winning the 2016 renewal but generally, this race is won by a really high-class performer.Last year’s race looked red hot at the time and has proven since with 2nd, 3rd and 4th, Crystal Ocean, Stradivarius and Rekindling establishing themselves as proper Group 1 horses. The winner of the 2017 edition, Capri, has barely run since but he has a host of late-season entries and will be a big player wherever he races next if he retains his ability.
This year’s renewal doesn’t look up to the 2017 standard but it’s a solid race nevertheless and Kew Gardens had headed the market since defeated at York (carried a penalty and this race was always the target, so he wasn’t fully wound up). However, John Gosden has recently confirmed that his unbeaten filly, Lah Ti Dar, is an intended starter and she has overtaken him at the top of the market.
Here we take a look at the runners in this year’s race, focusing on the big players and starting with the new favourite, Lah Ti Dar.
Lah Ti Dar
Lah Ti Dar has improved markedly with each of her 3 runs to date. She won a Newbury maiden by a long way after not running as a 2-year-old and then won an Epsom Oaks trial with considerable ease at Newmarket. Lah Ti Dar was forced to miss the Epsom Oaks with an injury but showed no rustiness for a 100 days plus off the track when routing the opposition in a Listed race at York on the same day that Sea Of Class won the Yorkshire Oaks.Sea Of Class and Lah Ti Dar won in similar times, and as Sea Of Class is the second favourite for the biggest race in Europe, the Prix de l’arc De Triomphe, Lah Ti Dar is very much respected in this race. She looks to have enough ability and it looks like that she will stay the distance OK as she has been seeing her races out very well over shorter. The main reservation I have regarding her is that she has never raced against horses that are this classy and this is by far her biggest challenge yet.
I expected Lah Ti Dar to run on Sunday this week in an Arc trial at Longchamp but it’s great for this race that she turns up here.
Kew Gardens and O’Brien’s others
Kew Gardens looked to hold an outstanding chance in this race before Lah Ti Dar’s intentions were known. He still boasts sound form claims with a comprehensive Royal Ascot win over this trip before picking up a soft looking Grand Prix De Paris over shorter. A run in the King George was considered as the next target for Kew Gardens but he was put away before reappearing in the 1 mile 4 furlong Great Voltigeur at York.He carried a 5-pound penalty and was ridden quietly before finishing his race off well to take third place. He’s much shorter in the betting than the re-opposing Old Persian and is expected to finish in front of his old rival over this extra distance. The big question is whether he will have enough to beat Lah Ti Dar conceding the sex allowance of 3 pounds to her.
Aidan O’Brien has five declared with Kew Gardens his clear number one hope. Southern France tends to be held up and stay on and it would need a very strong pace if he was to win. The Pentagon has already shown that he isn’t good enough for Group 1’s. Nelson will be utilised as a pacemaker. Zabriskie’s Dante third stands out in his form but the time was poor and the form looks untrustworthy.
Dee Ex Bee
Dee Ex Bee finished second in the Derby and has had plenty of runs since. He hasn’t replicated the standard of his Derby run and has looked laboured on fast ground over 1 mile 4 furlongs since. This step up in trip on ground that isn’t firm promises to suit, but he’ll need to race with more enthusiasm to challenge for the win. I suspect a couple of rivals will be too classy for him in this.Old Persian & Loxley
Old Persian won the Great Voltigeur at York last time, finishing ahead of Kew Gardens. Old Persian also won at Royal Ascot but was found out in the Irish Derby between those runs when held up off the pace. He’s not a certain stayer but the jockey arrangement of William Buick suggests that he is Charlie Appleby’s number one hope.Loxley is a slightly surprising runner. He had the option of running in a French Arc trial on Sunday and has already won twice in France this season at Deauville. Loxley prefers soft ground and connections are reportedly heading for this as Longchamp is going to be a quicker surface than Doncaster. He is second choice on jockey bookings and his defeat by Wells Farhh Go at Newmarket suggests he doesn’t quite stay well enough either.
The Rest
Raymond Tusk looks likely to stay this trip well and has been progressing all season. However, I don’t think that he has the class to win. Maid Up was narrowly defeated by Pilaster at Goodwood before winning a 3 horse race last time. She has been supplemented at a cost of £50,000 and will need to finish in the first 3 to make a profit for her owner. That looks unlikely. Proschema has been beaten in handicaps on his last 3 starts and surely won’t be good enough.Verdict
I would be surprised if one of the big two in the betting didn’t win this race. Aidan O’Brien’s horses have under-performed this year (by his incredibly high standards), with a bug reported in the yard. They are over that now and the stable is in flying form at the perfect time, with plenty of big races still to run this Autumn.Kew Gardens has had this race as his target for a long time, is already a Group 1 winner and has won over 1 mile 6 furlongs. Lah Ti Dar comes here after a late decision to swerve Longchamp, has only won Listed races confined to her own sex and is yet to prove that she stays this far (although she looks like she probably does have the stamina). Kew Gardens could well have been sent off at odds on if Lah Ti Dar wasn’t running and he should still be the outright favourite with his credentials proven.
Advice
1 point win Kew Gardens, 9/4 generallyGood Luck
CD Racing