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Nov 06 2017 @ 13:10
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 6 years, 4 months ago
MELBOURNE CUP BETTING TIP
Run 4am Tomorrow
6/1 Almandin, 7/1 Marmelo, 10/1 Humidor,
10/1 Johannes Vermeer, Wall Of Fire, 14/1 Red Cardinal,
14/1 Rekindling, Thomas Hobson, 16/1 Max Dynamite,
20/1 Amelie’s Star, Big Duke, Boom Time, Hartnell,
25/1 Nakeeta, Tiberian, Ventura Storm, 33/1 Single Gaze,
40/1 Cismontane, Libran, US Army Ranger,
50/1 Wicklow Brave, 66/1 Bondi Beach
100/1 Gallante.I sometimes like a little crack at this
I would demand a recent run
The last 12 winners all ran within 31 days
I would ignore every horse absent longer
Recent Melbourne Cup winners
Had these runs since August that year
4 6 3 4 4 2 2 4 4
I would want at least 2 runsThe last winner aged 8 was in 1938
I would ignore horses that age
Horses aged 7 or more have struggled
I would only consider one that old
If he had several recent races
Last years Winner Almadin lacks that
I wasn’t sold on Hartnell as topweight
More weight than all recent winners
He also has to step up in distance tooI want some decent numbers
A Racing Post Rating of at least 110
All recent winners managed thatI am down to the following horses
8/1 Marmelo,
10/1 Humidor,
10/1 Johannes Vermeer
14/1 Wall Of Fire
22/1 Big Duke
33/1 Boom Time
33/1 Ventura StormIf I look at the 4yo winners
They had 5 8 9 career starts
Wall Of Fire has far more than that
Do I really see a Canford Cliffs winning
I feel the same about Ventura Storm
He is 4 and has 16 runs which is a worry
I’d take some convincing about his sireOne thing looks significant to me
Past winners Racing Post RatingsLook at their Numbers before they won
109 111 116 116 113 117 114 119Look at their Career best Numbers
112 111 118 119 115 117 111 119HUMIDOR had a 122 rating last time
That is miles better than any other horse
Better than all recent winners last time
Better than all their career bests they hadHUMIDOR interests me on that run
He almost beat Winx last time
Many thought Wink underperformed
Maybe HUMIDOR over achieved
It was after all a course record timeIt worries me he comes from 10f
But the 2013 winner Fiorente
Won coming from the same trial race
HUMIDOR has a good draw as well
On that last time out run he is my betSelection
HUMIDOR 10/1