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Sep 27 2017 @ 11:40
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 6 years, 6 months ago
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
National Hunt Trainers Championship
4/7 Nicky Henderson
3/1 Paul Nicholls
7/1 Colin Tizzard
16/1 Willie Mullins
25/1 Dan Skelton
33/1 Gordon Elliot
50/1 Phillip Hobbs
100/1 BarThe championship is based on
prizemoney totals April to April.Last Seasons Result
1) Nicky Henderson 2.8 Million
2) Paul Nicholls 2.5 Million
3) Colin Tizzard 2.0 Million
7) Dan Skelton 1.3 Million
10) W Mullins 0.9 MillionCurrent Standings
1) Dan Skelton £436,658
2) Jonjo O’Neill £240,231
3) Paul Nicholls £231,96
8) Nicky Henderson £168,605
17) Colin Tizzard £58,470Interesting battle this year
I have done some research in this
That offers a different perspectivePhillip Hobbs has no chance
Gordon Elliot is also not considered
He almost won the Irish trainers last yearDAN SKELTON should go well
But he has been 12th 6th 7th in 3 seasons
This may just be a leap too far for himWILLIE MULLINS almost won this 2 years ago
Had an exceptional Cheltenham that year
Last year he only just won the Irish title
He was not even in the hunt in England
Henderson and Nicholls ran 600 + horses
Willie Mullins ran just 52 with 9 winners
With the Gordon Elliot threat back in Ireland
Willie Mullins may not try to win thisPAUL NICHOLLS might struggle to win this
He openly states he lacks Grade 1 horses
States his will not be prioritising the title
The following research suggests he shouldn’tRACING POST RATINGS
TOP 50 HORSES
LAST SEASON
1) DOUVAN – W Mullins RPR 178
2) ALTIOR – N Henderson RPR 177
3) CUE CARD – C Tizzard RPR 176
4) THISTLECRACK – C Tizzard RPR 176
5) FOX NORTON – C Tizzard RPR 174The complete top 50 is available
On the Racing post WebsiteLook at the Top Stable
How Many of the Elite Horses they trainPAUL NICHOLLS
His highest rated horse on RPR
Is Saphir Du Rheu with a 168 Rating
Saphir Du Rheu is only 23rd in the Top 50
The only Paul Nicholls horses in the top 5023rd Saphir Du Rheu
43rd Silviniaco Conti (Retired)
50th San BenedetoHis 2nd best horse is Silviniaco Conti
He has just retired !!
So he has just the 43rd and 50th rated
So how he will win this is Beyond me
He doesn’t have nearly enough firepower
He needs some of his 5 year olds to blossomNICKY HENDERSON
He has the 2nd highest rated (Altior)
Buveur D’Air is the 9th best (RPR 171)
In the top 50 he has these horses2nd 9th 16th 34th 36th 38th 39th
That is not a very impressive tally
In the Top 50 British Horses
Based on Racing Post Ratings last season
He only has the 2nd 9th 16th in the listCOLIN TIZZARD
3rd Last year
Hit £2 Million prize money
Going for an assult on this years title
Built a new barn this year
Now accomodates 15-20 more horses
Alan Potts now a major owner
He is the trainer on the up
Look at his horses in the Top 503rd Cue Card
4th Thistlecrack
5th Fox Norton
12th Native RiverCompare that to Paul Nicholls
It is also far better than HendersonI expect this to be a match
Nicky Henderson 4/7 v Colin Tizzard 7/1
This research points to Colin Tizzard
There is no each way betting right now
Not every bookmaker has priced this up
Having Henderson as a saver is possible
But it is difficult and may not be worth it
So I am suggesting a win betSelection
COLIN TIZZARD
Win Bet
7/1 Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral
7/1 bet365, Boylesports
6/1 Betfred