-
May 05 2017 @ 18:04
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 6 years, 11 months ago
It is 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket on Saturday.
That will be one of multiple races Guy will be
covering in his message tomorrow.I believe Guy’s mind has been made up for some time however
about that race. He has in fact discussed it on several occasions
with full members over the past few months from an ante
post perspective.In short he has fancied Churchill for some time
and finds it hard to envision it unplaced.
He has been doing quite a bit of personal ante post
betting revolving around Churchill in each way doubles.He has even been doing a bit of car travelling to shops
to get extra weight of cash on than he can do online.So I guess if Churchill wins tomorrow
Guy will be smoking a big cigar giving the
old V sign to the bookies.I am not sure which way round he
will have his fingers rotated.
A bit of both I suspect.A mere place would not be a disaster for him.
I can’t see his answer to “who is the most likely winner of the race”
changing by tomorrow.“Where is the ante post value” is a question he also decided some time ago.
“Where will the value be at morning of race odds” is I guess
a question not yet answered.For all I know Churchill will be hammered even further inwards.
Any extreme frenzy could even see it go odds on.
If Churchill comes in then others must go out.
“Is there a good each way alternate?” is always a decent question
to ask yourself if you see an odds on favourite.That’s not a question your bookie really wants you to be thinking about generally.
It’s just a quirk of bookmaking maths they are not keen to have you exploit too often.Anyhow pre built up ante post positions on Churchill in each way doubles
is where Guy is at right now with his personal attack on the bookies.Churchill he will say is the most likely winner tomorrow.
But there is always scope for a each way new value horse to appear
if there is significant market change by tomorrow when he sends
his day of race analysis out.Think not just about names of horses but also
about prices I guess may be the simple message.Picture even a fictitious coin toss event
with some ante post lead in time.Many if asked for their tip would pick
heads or tails and stick with it.Ask a pro punter however and his pick could change daily.
11/10 about heads today and he would tip heads today.
11/10 later in the week about tails after a market shift and he would tip tails.Anyhow I am going off tangent again.
Book in for the Saturday Day Pass if you are interested in
reading Guy’s day of race assessment of the 2000 Guineas
and multiple other races as well.There are some old samples on the day pass page
you can look at if you have yet to see the sort of detailed
race analysis Guy provides here.