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Feb 27 2017 @ 16:46
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 7 years, 1 month ago
Ante Post Cheltenham
Tuesday 14th March
Cheltenham 4.50
JT McNamara National Hunt Challenge Cup
Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (5yo+)A Genie In Abottle (6) Martello Tower (14) Arpege Dalene (16)
Beware The Bear (16) Bigbadjohn (16) Champers On Ice (16)
American (20) Edwulf (20) Emerging Force (20) Alpha Des Obeaux (25)
Haymount (25) Mall Dini (25) Marinero (25) Premier Bond (25) Tiger Roll (25)
Arbre De Vie (33) Baywing (33) Bellshill (33) Calett Mad (33) Flintham (33)
General Principle (33) Ibis Du Rheu (33) Missed Approach (33)
Shantou Village (33) Ballycross (40) Dancing Shadow (40) Kerrow (40)
Label Des Obeaux (40) Mystical Knight (40) Aurillac (50)
Battle of Shiloh (50) Bells N Banjos (50) Catalaunian Fields (66)
Father Edward (66) Lessons In Milan (66) What A Moment (66)
Wild West Wind (66) Amber Gambler (100) Call It Magic (100)
Carningli (100) Hurricane Darwin (100)4m Novice Chase for Amateur Riders
There are 41 runners entered in this race
14 of these are unfancied at 100/1 and more
They may become runners later on
We can revisit them if any when that happensA GENIE IN A BOTTLE is ante post favourite
Likely to have the best jockey in the race
I don’t have any problem with his profile
It is his Stamina that concerns meA GENIE IN A BOTTLE is sired by Beneficial
My Breeding stats show this sires runners over 3m 5f +
Have a very worrying 1-99 record
That winner was GVA Ireland a Midlands National winner
That was 11 years ago now
The Racing Post New Website allows me more optionsIt allows me to cross match two things
Racing Post Ratings and Distances
If I look at every horse sired by Beneficial
Who raced over 3m 5f or longer
I can find out their Racing Post Ratings now
The highest rated was Benvolio
He had a Racing Post Rating of 152 over 3m 5f
None sired by Beneficial has beaten thatI want a horse with at least 3 Chase runs
Past winners had the following number of Chases
4 10 4 3 5 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5
I will oppose horses with 2 or fewer Chase runs
AMERICAN – BAYWING have this problem
BELLS N BANJOS also has this problemBEWARE THE BARE only has 2 Chase starts
I find that unacceptable for that and other reasons
He has only raced twice this season as well
The vast majority of past winners had 4 + runs
He also has 90 days off which wont be easyHorses aged 5 have never won this race
CALETT MAD is unacceptable at that age
FLINTHAM has raced just twice this year
I’d downgrade his chance because of thatYou do not win this after a poor recent race
If you go back 20 years in this race
Look at horses that raced in the last 3 months
Who were beaten over 20 lengths last time out
You find a 0-65 record from all that tried
That tells me to avoid horses flopping last time
AURILLAC has this problem with a poor last run
ALPHA DES OBEAUX has this problem
GENERAL PRINCIPLE also fails this angleHAYMONT has this problem but also has excuses
MARTELLO TOWER fails the same stat with excuses
I would Not rule either out just yetWe know horses that raced in the last 3 months
Who were beaten over 20 lengths last time out
Have a 0-65 record when trying to win this race
CHAMPERS ON ICE has this problem
Beaten 21 lengths last time out he only just fails it
But I don’t want to forgive him that failing
This is because of stamina problems
CHAMPERS ON ICE is sired by Robin Des Champs
Whilst my breeding stats show
This sire has a winner over 3m 5f
What the New Racing Post Website allows me to know
Is the Racing Post Ratings
Of every horse sired by Robin Des Champs
Who raced over 3m 5f or more
There were 19 horses by the sire that did this
These were the 19 Racing Post Ratings they recorded
116 91 0 109 41 0 94 121 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135
Bearing in mind to win this race
You will probably need a rating of about 150
The offspring of Robin Des Champs fall short
The 135 rating was Tour Des Champs over 4 miles
Tour Des Champs also has a rating of 146 over 3m 4f
But he is the best horse his sire has bred over long trips
And over 3m 5f or more his rating of 135 wont be enough
And that strongly suggests to me
CHAMPERS ON ICE probably wont stay this farMost winners and placed horses had Graded form
I would be worried if a horse lacked that
DANCING SHADOW does not have the right backclass
KERROW and MALL DINI have no Graded form
Neither does PREMIER BONDMISSED APPROACH may not get home by a flat sire
If you go back to 2000 and the last 17 renewals
The longest absence any winner had was 96 days
MARINERO has 122 days off the track
He is quite exposed to be winning off that break
TIGER ROLL has a similar problem
He is absent 134 days and quite exposed
BIGBADJOHN is entitled to respect
His profile and numbers are fine
I doubt he will be my final selection though
Not overkeen on his trainer
And said to prefer flatter tracks
It would be a big risk to bet him at CheltenhamMore Interesting Options
EMERGING POINT has positives
ARBRE DE VIE – Willie Mullins and R.Ricci
His 0-3 Chase record with no wins is forgivable
But he has some problems to overcome
Coming from 2m 4f wont be easy for starters
I do not like just 2 runs this season either
His breeding stats are interesting as well
Look at the sires runners over 3m 1f and more
They have a modest 1-38 record
The sire ( Antarctique) has a 3m 6f win in Class 2
But that horse race a Racing Post Rating of 123
Today will require significantly better
Not ready to discount him just yetMARTELLO TOWER was beaten 47 lengths last time
He fails the 0-65 statistic for a poor last run
I think he probably went off too fast at NaasHAYMONT did the same thing in the same race
Both these horses did too much too early for me
So I would also excuse this horse for that run
HAYMONT has been well beaten again since
But that was a falsely run race with an easy winner
They let that winner get much too far aheadARPEGE DALENE is a positive
The Sire has twice bred the winner of this race
Very talented but very quirky
But more than deserves a shortlist placeEDWULF is very interesting
Won only yesterday by 8 lengths
Yes that was only a 2m 4f race
And that would worry me a little bit
It was also a Novice Handicap Chase
But 3 past winners did the same the last in 2009
EDWULF has a lot of positives elsewhere
A Racing Post Rating of 157 yesterday
That is a massive number to have on side
That if repeated on the day of the race
Would win 10 of the last 11 renewals
He has over 5 runs this season as well
From brilliant connections and a reliable sire
Has to be a serious runner
You can argue there are other problems
Such as failing to complete 3 times in 7 Chases
But at this stage he has the most positives
But he does have other festival options
If the race was today he’d be my bet