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Feb 11 2017 @ 12:07
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 7 years, 1 month ago
Newbury 3.35, m 69y class 1 Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap) (4yo plus) Live on ITV4
4/1 Ballyandy, 5/1 Clyne, 5/1 Movewiththetimes, 8/1 William H Bonney, 9/1 Song Light, 10/1 Zubayr, 12/1 Wait For Me, 14/1 De Name Escapes Me, 14/1 Veinard, 16/1 Beltor, 25/1 Ballyhill, 25/1 Gassin Golf, 25/1 Kayf Blanco, 33/1 Hargam, 40/1 Boite, 40/1 Eddiemaurice.
This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle over 2m
Formerly the Schweppes and Tote Gold Trophy
It is the only race of its kind in FebruaryHorses aged 8 or more have a 1-70 record
They have a 0-44 record since 2004GASSIN GOLF is 8 and has 19 hurdle runs
KAYF BLANCO is 8 and has 17 hurdle runs
VEINARD is 8 and has 15 hurdle runs
Given they are all older than every winner since 2004
And recent winners had 4 14 6 3 3 3 3 8 10 hurdle runs
I see these three horses as too exposed6 of the last 7 winners had under 7 hurdle runs
8 of the last 9 winners had under 11 hurdle runsSONG LIGHT already has 13 hurdle runs
That’s a problem combined with 90 days absence
No horse won with so many runs absent as long as that
EDDIEMAURICE has 17 hurdle runs
That’s far too exposed and he looks wrongHorses aged 7 or more have a 4-143 record
Since 2005 though they have a 0-81 record
This has not been a good race for 7 year olds
DE NAME ESCAPES ME is a 7 year old
He is hard to like with 287 days off the trackCLYNE is also a 7 year old
We know they are 0-81 since 2005
CLYNE has a lot of weight with 11st 9lbs
A Champion Hurdler won this in 1997 with 11st 7lbs
But that was almost 20 years ago now
And the last horse to win with more weight
Was the mighty Persian War back in 1968
CLYNE has more weight than all winners since 1968
My other problem is his sire Hernando
Look at this sires Hurdlers
Running in Listed or Graded Class
Good to Soft or Softer
Over 2m 3f or shorter
There is a 0-43 record with these runners
CLYNE does not have good breeding stats
BOITE is also rejected aged 7
HARGAM isn’t running well enough
BALLYHILL is wrong dropping from a 2m 5f race
Horses doing that have a miserable record in this raceHorses aged 5 from Handicap Hurdles
Have a very average 2-60 record
They have a 0-35 record since 2008
Those with under 10 hurdle runs
Have a 0-43 record going back to 2001
ZUBAYR fails these angles
Not overkeen than he is the only 5 year old as well
ZUBAYR is the youngest horse in the race
I think he has too much weight for a 5yo anywayBALLYANDY is 6 years old
He has 3 hurdle races
There has been 6 year olds with 3 hurdle runs
My Tent Or Yours did it
Get Me Out Of Here did it
But that pair were lighter raced
They both won last time as well
They were both more progressive
BALLYANDY is not a perfect match
And coming from a 2m 4f race is not the norm
Trip droppers do not score well in this raceShortlist
BELTOR has 17 lifetime starts
Thats a bit on the exposed side
I would not see him as a negative though
I see similarities with 2008 winner WingmanMOVEWITHTHETIMES is lightly raced
I am quite happy to shortlist him on that profile
My Breeding stats pass him as safe
I see him more as a saver optionWILLIAM H BONNEY has an appealing profile
A nice blend of experience but potentialWAIT FOR ME is 7 years old
Whilst that is older than ideal he passes
Because he is very lightly raced for a 7yo
And he did not start racing until he was a 5yo
We was a slow learner last year
He looks well handicapped and I love his recent runSelection
£2.50 Each Way WAIT FOR ME 12/1
£2.50 Each Way WILLIAM H BONNEY 10/1