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Jun 11 2016 @ 11:48
Richard Dunwoody MBE posted an update in the group Horse Racing 7 years, 10 months ago · updated 7 years, 10 months ago
Hi, plenty of winners last week – including the Epsom Derby winner, Harzand, so plenty to smile about. We also hopefully pointed you in the direction of other Epsom winners like Postponed, Epsom Icon, Kimberella & Duke Of Firenze, who were all put up last week as horses to note.
Right, moving onto this weekend and, yes, the action might lack a bit of quality, but it certainly makes up for in quantity! We’ve NINE LIVE C4 races this Saturday with contests from York, Sandown and Musselburgh to take in – as always we’ve got our trends and verdicts for the main races, plus tips for ALL NINE!A Bumper Day Of C4 LIVE Horse Racing Action
SANDOWN PARK – LIVE C4 RACES…………………………………
3.20 – betstars.uk Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y CH4
11/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
9/11 – Had won over 5f before
9/11 – Placed favourites
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
7/11 – Had won at least 3 times before
6/11 – Came from stall 7 or higher
6/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
5/11 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
2/11 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 4/1VERDICT: We’ve seen three of the last 4 favourites land this race so keep a close eye on the market. The William Haggas team took this race in 2009 so their ORNATE is certainly a good place to start. This horse is the highest-rated in the field and if running to the level that saw him run a close second in the Group Two Flying Childers Stakes last September then he’ll take a lot of beating in this Listed race. Ryan Moore, who has won this race in 2008 & 2013, has been booked to ride and although he’s been off since January is sure to be fully wound-up for this. Easton Angel got back to winning ways last time out in a Listed race at York and has form that is closely linked in with the selection – she is only rated 7lbs behind, but receives 2lbs so has 5lbs to make up. Willytheconqueror is the only course and distance winner in the field, but that came in handicap company. So the biggest danger could come from Shaden, who rounded-off last season with a win in a Group Three up at Ayr. Yes, this will be her first run back, but has gone well fresh in the past and could be set for a big season for the up-and-coming George Scott yard.
Other Sandown Live Races
2.10 – CHESTER STREET
2.45 – CZECH IT OUT (e/w)YORK – LIVE C4 RACES…………………………………
3.00 – Best Western Hotels Ganton Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m CH4
Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Aged 5 or younger
4/4 – Irish bred
3/4 – Placed favourites
3/4 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Had won a Listed (or better) race before
3/4 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
2/4 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/4 – Winning favourites
Top Notch Tonto won the race in 2015
Andrew Balding won the race in 2012
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 3/1VERDICT: Top Notch Tonto took this race in 2015, but you suspect his chance rests on the track getting a bit of rain – he does act on most ground, but his best form has been with more give underfoot. You’re Fired is the only other past course and distance winner in the field but does have about 3-4lbs to find with several of the others on these terms. Paul Hanagan rides MUWAARY over Mutakayyef and might be worth chancing despite a 698 day break from the track. He’s clearly had his problems but was running in a lot better Group races than this back in 2014 so if back on-song could easily find this grade to his liking. Encouraging signs are that he’s won first-time out two times before, while the John Gosden team are unlikely to risk him if he’s not close to full fitness. Of the rest, Jallota was a good winner here last time out, but will need more now stepped up from handicap company, while Mindurownbusiness has improved a lot over the winter at the AW tracks so warrants respect now back on turf. Finally, the Ralph Beckett team clearly think their once-raced Red Napoleon is up to going well in this grade, despite his limited experience.
3.35 – 888Sport Charity Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4
11/11 – Rated between 87-97
9/11 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
9/11 – Had won over 6f before
8/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Won by David Nicholls
2/11 – Won by Tim Easterby (inc 2 of the last 3 runnings)
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1VERDICT: Ultra-competitive race here with 20 heading to post. Several key trends to note, like horses from stall 1 not having the best recent record – bad news if you like the hat-trick seeking Ikerrin Road. In contrast, look for horses that raced in the last 4 weeks, were rated between 87-97 and were placed in the top 5 last time out. With all that in mind the Andrew Balding-trained DANCING STAR (e/w) could be the call. This 3 year-old has won its last two in eye-catching fashion and despite a 9lb rise in the ratings there should be more to come with this being just his sixth career run. Udontdodou is another that fits the bill and is sure to be popular after wins at Thirsk and Windsor, but might not represent much value. Aclaim was third in a Group Three last time out and if running to that form here back into handicap company would have a massive say. This will only be his fourth career run and he’s sure to play a role too. Finally, of those at a bigger price it could pay to note that the Tim Easterby yard have won this race twice in the last three years – once with a 20/1 shot – so their Still On Top (e/w) might be worth a small interest. Yes, well beaten the last twice, but it’s interesting that connections drop him back from a mile to 6f. All his best form has been over this trip and is actually yet to finish out of the first four from his four tries over 6f.
Other York Live Races
1.50 – SIKANDAR (e/w)
2.25 – MUJASSAM (e/w)MUSSELBURGH – LIVE C4 RACES…………………………………
3.45 – William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f CH4
11/12 – Won over 5f before
10/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
9/12 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/12 – Had won between 2-5 times before
8/12 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/12 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
7/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Bryan Smart
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Red Baron won the race in 2015VERDICT: Robot Boy won on this card 2 years, but this race will be a lot harder. On a plus, he’s a horse that improved a lot since, but has now dropped back to a fair mark and has gone well fresh in the past. Looking at the trends then horses that raced in the last 4 weeks, carried 9-1 or less and came from a double-figure draw are key stats to note. We had Kimberella (e/w) last week, who was just touched-off in the Epsom Dash, and with just 8-9 and coming from stall 17 then everything points to another big run. He’s certainly one for the shortlist and looks sure to be in the mix, but doesn’t look much value. 4 and 5 year-olds have one best – winning 8 of the last 12 – so at 6 then Kimberella falls down in that age stat. Duke Of Firenze was just behind Kimberella in the Dash last time in third so is another to note, but he’s had a busy spell of late and at 7 years-old is another that falls outside the key age stat in this race. Sea The Sun is another that will be popular after winning his last two in decent fashion and fits a lot of the key trends, but a 5lb rise in the ratings makes life harder. The one we like here though is JUDICIAL (e/w). This horse beat Red Baron, who won this race 12 months ago, well last time out at Thirsk and you suspect if he was with a slightly bigger yard would be a bit shorter in the betting. He’s up 6lbs for that, but had almost 2 lengths in-hand that day and with just 8 career runs there is also a very strong chance there will be more improvement to come. Drawn in 14, aged 4 years-old and carrying just 9-0 means he’s also got plenty of the key trends on his side.
Other Musselburgh Live Races
3.10 – SHIPYARD (e/w)