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Oct 17 2015 @ 11:23
Richard Dunwoody MBE posted an update in the group Horse Racing 8 years, 6 months ago
Morning – it’s a HUGE day ahead at Ascot with a top Champions Day card to enjoy. It looks set to be a crackerjack of a meeting to end the flat turf season so unlike most weeks I’m going to take a look at ALL the races there on Saturday. Well done to Silvestre De Sousa, who will be crowned champion jockey at the meeting. The Brazilian can’t be caught after another cracking season in the saddle – made all the better as a freelance after losing his Godolphin job last term. Teaming back up with Mark Johnston was a big factor, but the clear highlight was back in August and his winning ride on Arabian Queen (runs in the Champions Fillies & Mares today) in the Juddmonte Stakes when beating Golden Horn – meaning he’s the only jockey to finish ahead of John Gosden’s Derby and Arc winner!
Champions Day at Ascot………1.20 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f CH4
13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/13 – Won over 6f previously
12/13 – Raced at least 4 times that season
12/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
12/13 – Won at least 3 times previously
11/13 – Won at Listed or better class previously
10/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/13 – Raced at Ascot previously (2 won)
9/13 – Won a Group race previously
9/13 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
8/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Raced at Haydock (4), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/13 – Won their latest race
3/13 – Favourites that won
2/13 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
Gordon Lord Byron won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1VERDICT: Gordon Lord Byron (e/w) won this race 12 months ago and at around 16/1 there would be worse double-figure each-way options in the race. Any more rain would be a plus and he certainly looks value. However, this race could be dominated by the 3 year-olds with Henry Candy’s Twilight Son and Charles Hills’ MUHAARAR setting the standard. Ryan Moore rides Twilight Son for the first time so that’s a big plus, but he only just got home last time in a battle with Strath Burn so that race might have left a mark. Muhaarar is, therefore, the call. He’s a past CD winner after winning the Commonwealth Cup here at the Royal Meeting back in June, while the form of his recent win in France has since been franked with the second, Esoterique, coming out and winning the Sun Chariot earlier this month. I’ll take Muhaarar to continue his good form with an e/w saver on last year’s winner Gordon Lord Byron.
1.55 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f CH4
7 previous runnings
7/7 – Raced 3 or more times that season
6/7 – Won over 1m4f previously
6/7 – Won at Listed or better class previously
5/7 – Favourites placed
5/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
5/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
5/7 – Won at least 3 times previously
5/7 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
4/7 – Rated 110 or higher
4/7 – Aged 3 years-old
3/7 – Won their last race
2/7 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/7 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/7 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 7/1
Madame Chiang won the race 12 months agoVERDICT: A cracking race in prospect here with the St Leger winner, Simple Verse, back out, while this season’s Juddmonte Stakes winner, Arabian Queen will be trying to give the champion jockey elect – Silvestre De Sousa – another big payday. The French pin their hopes on Candarliya, who looks a big player, while Hugo Palmer will be trying to eke out another win for his tough Covert Love – who we last saw winning on Arc day at Longchamp. However, it was hard not to be taken by the manner that John Gosden’s JOURNEY (e/w) won last time out at HQ. Yes, that was in a Listed race, but she battered the field by 8 lengths that day so there could be more to come. Frankie Dettori takes over in the saddle and this could be another big pot for the Gosden-Dettori team.
2.30 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (British Champions Mile) (Group 1) Cl1 1m CH4
13/13 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
13/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
13/13 – Raced at least 3 times that season
13/13 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
12/13 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
11/13 – Finished in the top three in their last race
10/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/13 – Raced at Ascot previously (4 won)
7/13 – Won their latest race
6/13 – Won at least 7 times previously
6/13 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
5/13 – Favourites that won
3/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1VERDICT: Billed as a match between Gleneagles and SOLOW in what looks like being a cracking contest. We’ve not seen this year’s 2,000 Guineas winner, Gleneagles, since he also won the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. The horse has bypassed several big races this season due to the ground but with time running out you feel connections will be forced to run him here. The softer ground will suit the French horse – Solow – the better so despite having to give weight away to Gleneagles is taken to maintain her winning run and make it 9 victories on the spin.
3.05 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f CH4
13/13 – Won at least 4 times previously
12/13 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
12/13 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
12/13 – Aged 5 or younger
12/13 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
11/13 – Won over 1m2f previously
9/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/13 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Raced at either Longchamp (3) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/13 – Favourites unplaced
5/13 – Returned a double-figure price
3/13 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/13 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/13 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 8/1VERDICT: Found will be hoping to improve on her ninth when last seen in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the return to 1m2f looks a big plus ahead of her chance here. However, she might have to go some to lower the colours of JACK HOBBS. John Gosden’s 3 year-old and Derby runner-up has been very impressive this term and if it wasn’t for a certain Golden Horn, who has beaten him twice into second, then he’d remain unbeaten. The return to 1m2f on this track should be fine and after warming-up with a nice easy win at Kempton in a Group Three then everything points to a huge run. Yes, the draw is not ideal in 12, but that will mean his price is a tiny bit bigger than it should be – his jockey, William Buick, should have enough time to overcome that and he still rates the one to beat for me. Of the rest, the French have Vadamos as their main hope, but at a price Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock (e/w) would not be the worst shout in the world after it’s recent win.
3.45 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m CH4
Just 1 previous runningBronze Angel (Marcus Tregoning) won the race 12 months ago
Peter Chapple-Hyam is 2 from 8 with his older horses here
Saeed Bin Suroor is just 4 from 76 with his older horses here
Mick Channon is just 1 from 42 with his older horses here
Hughie Morrison is just 2 from 50 with his older horses here
David Simcock is just 2 from 53 with his older horses hereVERDICT: If you are looking at getting out of trouble here then – good luck! This looks an ultra-tough race to unravel and with only one previous running then no real trends to note either. The Marcus Tregoning-trained Bronze Angel won the race 12 months ago so will surely be popular again – albeit off a 4lb higher mark. But a horse that did us a favour here a few weeks back was BUCKSTAY (e/w) and even off a 6lb higher mark is the call. The front two pulled 2 ½ lengths clear that day and has a similar stall here in 5 (was in 8 last time). We can expect a late run, but the extra furlong should suit too and Jim Crowley has ridden the horse to success in the past.